Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Julius Walker won · U-DEC R3

Elo1451

Elo1436

Julius WalkervsRafael CerqueiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Saturday, August 9, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Julius Walker won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Julius Walker wins(90.1%)

Actual result: Julius Walker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julius Walker at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julius Walker enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rafael Cerqueira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Julius Walker has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Cerqueira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Julius Walker

Red Corner

Rafael Cerqueira

Blue Corner

-750

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+530

(16%)

1451

Elo

1436

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julius WalkerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alonzo Menifield · Feb 25

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Feb 26

KOvs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev · Jun 26

latest

Rafael CerqueiraL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ibo Aslan · Oct 24

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Feb 25

SUBvs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julius WalkerMetricRafael Cerqueira

3.73

Strikes / min

1.56

4.03

Strikes absorbed / min

5.05

43%

Strike defense

36%

4.09

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

36%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.30Δ 3.19 — meaningful gap-3.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julius WalkerRafael Cerqueira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julius Walker(4 fights)Rafael Cerqueira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.9|Blue -14.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julius WalkerTargetRafael Cerqueira

By target zone

60% acc · 59%

Head

41% acc · 79%

90% acc · 20%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

69% acc · 41%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

44% acc · 9%

Clinch

81% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julius Walker rounds

even

Rafael Cerqueira rounds

Round 1Julius Walker edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control3:31

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Julius Walker edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control4:41

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Julius Walker edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control3:34

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 62

Sig Strikes

19 / 42

70.7%

Sig Str %

40.7%

96 / 120

Total Strikes

30 / 54

6 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

71.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:46

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Cerqueira	11 / 25	12 / 26	0 / 0
1	Julius Walker	13 / 22	17 / 27	3 / 4
2	Rafael Cerqueira	1 / 4	6 / 10	0 / 0
2	Julius Walker	13 / 18	48 / 57	1 / 1
3	Rafael Cerqueira	7 / 13	12 / 18	0 / 0
3	Julius Walker	18 / 22	31 / 36	2 / 5

Julius Walker

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4

Rafael Cerqueira

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4