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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Sheymon Moraes won · S-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1374

Julio ArcevsSheymon MoraesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Saturday, November 3, 2018New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Sheymon Moraes won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJulio Arce: Well-roundedvsSheymon Moraes: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Julio Arce wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Sheymon Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julio Arce at -255 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julio Arce has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Julio Arce (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Julio Arce

Red Corner

Sheymon Moraes

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1504

Elo

1374

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julio Arce

oldest →

KOvs Andre Ewell · Jul 21

KOvs Song Yadong · Nov 21

vs Daniel Santos · Apr 22

vs Montel Jackson · Nov 22

KOvs Herbert Burns · Mar 24

latest

Sheymon MoraesL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Nov 17

vs Matt Sayles · Aug 18

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 19

KOvs Andre Fili · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julio ArceMetricSheymon Moraes

4.36

Strikes / min

3.00

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.64

68%

Strike defense

63%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

0.00

96%

Takedown defense

53%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.31Δ 1.95 — meaningful gap-0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julio ArceSheymon Moraes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julio Arce(10 fights)Sheymon Moraes(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +129.4|Blue -129.4

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +64.0|Blue -64.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julio ArceTargetSheymon Moraes

By target zone

16% acc · 64%

Head

27% acc · 69%

43% acc · 36%

Body

50% acc · 28%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

20% acc · 92%

Distance

23% acc · 50%

40% acc · 8%

Clinch

69% acc · 28%

Ground

35% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julio Arce rounds

even

Sheymon Moraes rounds

Round 1Sheymon Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control3:21

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Sheymon Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:49

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Julio Arce edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 119

Sig Strikes

32 / 102

18.3%

Sig Str %

33%

46 / 145

Total Strikes

35 / 105

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:10

Ctrl Time

1:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sheymon Moraes	7 / 17	8 / 18	0 / 0	0
1	Julio Arce	2 / 12	22 / 37	0 / 3	2
2	Sheymon Moraes	13 / 43	15 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Julio Arce	5 / 35	5 / 35	1 / 2	0
3	Sheymon Moraes	12 / 42	12 / 42	0 / 0	0
3	Julio Arce	18 / 72	19 / 73	0 / 0	0

Julio Arce

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Sheymon Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5