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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Montel Jackson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1499

Julio ArcevsMontel JacksonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 12, 2022New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Montel Jackson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJulio Arce: Well-roundedvsMontel Jackson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Montel Jackson wins(81.1%)

Actual result: Montel Jackson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Montel Jackson at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julio Arce has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Montel Jackson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Julio Arce

Red Corner

Montel Jackson

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1504

Elo

1499

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julio ArceW2 streak

oldest →

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Nov 19

KOvs Andre Ewell · Jul 21

KOvs Song Yadong · Nov 21

vs Daniel Santos · Apr 22

KOvs Herbert Burns · Mar 24

latest

Montel JacksonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rani Yahya · Apr 23

KOvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jul 24

vs Daniel Marcos · May 25

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Oct 25

DECvs Raoni Barcelos · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julio ArceMetricMontel Jackson

4.36

Strikes / min

3.02

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

1.40

68%

Strike defense

60%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

2.71

96%

Takedown defense

67%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.31evenly matched on net striking+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julio ArceMontel Jackson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julio Arce(10 fights)Montel Jackson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.3|Blue -4.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -203.0|Blue +203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julio ArceTargetMontel Jackson

By target zone

13% acc · 50%

Head

41% acc · 81%

47% acc · 31%

Body

71% acc · 10%

71% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

20% acc · 96%

Distance

40% acc · 69%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

80% acc · 8%

Ground

58% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julio Arce rounds

even

Montel Jackson rounds

Round 1Montel Jackson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:06

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:09Control

Round 2Montel Jackson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

Round 3Montel Jackson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:34Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 126

Sig Strikes

48 / 106

19.3%

Sig Str %

41.7%

44 / 156

Total Strikes

64 / 127

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 3

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

5:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Montel Jackson	5 / 17	15 / 29	0 / 1
1	Julio Arce	4 / 22	9 / 27	1 / 2
2	Montel Jackson	19 / 46	24 / 54	0 / 2
2	Julio Arce	15 / 58	25 / 72	0 / 0
3	Montel Jackson	24 / 43	25 / 44	0 / 0
3	Julio Arce	7 / 46	10 / 57	0 / 0

Julio Arce

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Montel Jackson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights13