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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Julio Arce won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1504

Elo1495

Julio ArcevsJulian ErosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · Saturday, May 18, 2019Rochester, New York, USA

Official fight result

Julio Arce won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:49

Style matchupJulio Arce: Well-roundedvsJulian Erosa: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Julio Arce wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Julio Arce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julio Arce at -800 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julio Arce is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Julian Erosa has lost 78% of fights by KO.
Julio Arce has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Julio Arce has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Julian Erosa has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Julio Arce

Red Corner

Julian Erosa

Blue Corner

-800

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+550

(15%)

1504

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

6'1"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julio Arce

oldest →

KOvs Andre Ewell · Jul 21

KOvs Song Yadong · Nov 21

vs Daniel Santos · Apr 22

vs Montel Jackson · Nov 22

KOvs Herbert Burns · Mar 24

latest

Julian ErosaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24

SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24

KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25

vs Melquizael Costa · May 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julio ArceMetricJulian Erosa

4.36

Strikes / min

6.18

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

6.31

68%

Strike defense

48%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

1.73

96%

Takedown defense

61%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.31Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julio ArceJulian Erosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julio Arce(10 fights)Julian Erosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.1|Blue -9.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julio ArceTargetJulian Erosa

By target zone

43% acc · 82%

Head

18% acc · 53%

71% acc · 16%

Body

63% acc · 35%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

71% acc · 12%

By position

46% acc · 96%

Distance

26% acc · 91%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

44% acc · 9%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julio Arce rounds

even

Julian Erosa rounds

Round 1Julio Arce edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:07

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Julio Arce edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:05

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Julio Arce edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 160

Sig Strikes

43 / 160

45.3%

Sig Str %

26.3%

74 / 160

Total Strikes

46 / 164

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Julian Erosa	12 / 49	14 / 51	0 / 0
1	Julio Arce	14 / 43	14 / 43	1 / 1
2	Julian Erosa	21 / 74	22 / 76	0 / 0
2	Julio Arce	34 / 72	34 / 72	0 / 0
3	Julian Erosa	10 / 37	10 / 37	0 / 0
3	Julio Arce	26 / 45	26 / 45	0 / 0

Julio Arce

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18