← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Hakeem Dawodu won · S-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1473

Julio ArcevsHakeem DawoduUFC Prediction Result

UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Saturday, November 2, 2019New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Hakeem Dawodu won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJulio Arce: Well-roundedvsHakeem Dawodu: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Hakeem Dawodu wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Hakeem Dawodu wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hakeem Dawodu at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julio Arce has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Julio Arce has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Julio Arce (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Julio Arce

Red Corner

Hakeem Dawodu

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1504

Elo

1473

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julio Arce

oldest →

KOvs Andre Ewell · Jul 21

KOvs Song Yadong · Nov 21

vs Daniel Santos · Apr 22

vs Montel Jackson · Nov 22

KOvs Herbert Burns · Mar 24

latest

Hakeem DawoduL2 streak

oldest →

vs Zubaira Tukhugov · Sep 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jun 21

vs Michael Trizano · Feb 22

vs Julian Erosa · Sep 22

vs Cub Swanson · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julio ArceMetricHakeem Dawodu

4.36

Strikes / min

5.45

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.37

68%

Strike defense

56%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

0.00

96%

Takedown defense

65%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.31evenly matched on net striking+2.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julio ArceHakeem Dawodu

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julio Arce(10 fights)Hakeem Dawodu(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.6|Blue -30.6

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julio ArceTargetHakeem Dawodu

By target zone

21% acc · 66%

Head

19% acc · 27%

50% acc · 34%

Body

60% acc · 45%

0% acc

Leg

83% acc · 27%

By position

24% acc · 88%

Distance

33% acc · 73%

50% acc · 13%

Clinch

79% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julio Arce rounds

even

Hakeem Dawodu rounds

Round 1Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

Round 2Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:43

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:25Control

Round 3Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:13

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 124

Sig Strikes

55 / 139

24.3%

Sig Str %

38%

64 / 162

Total Strikes

83 / 170

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

3:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Hakeem Dawodu	13 / 39	26 / 53	0 / 0
1	Julio Arce	6 / 31	12 / 39	0 / 1
2	Hakeem Dawodu	14 / 37	23 / 47	0 / 0
2	Julio Arce	9 / 42	20 / 54	1 / 1
3	Hakeem Dawodu	28 / 63	34 / 70	0 / 0
3	Julio Arce	17 / 51	32 / 69	0 / 1

Julio Arce

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Hakeem Dawodu

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10