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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Julio Arce won · SUB R3

Elo1504

Elo1492

Julio ArcevsDaniel TeymurUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · Friday, June 1, 2018Utica, New York, USA

Official fight result

Julio Arce won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:55

Style matchupJulio Arce: Well-roundedvsDaniel Teymur: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Julio Arce wins(85.4%)

Actual result: Julio Arce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julio Arce at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julio Arce has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Julio Arce has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Julio Arce (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Julio Arce

Red Corner

Daniel Teymur

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1504

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'5"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julio Arce

oldest →

KOvs Andre Ewell · Jul 21

KOvs Song Yadong · Nov 21

vs Daniel Santos · Apr 22

vs Montel Jackson · Nov 22

KOvs Herbert Burns · Mar 24

latest

Daniel Teymur

oldest →

vs Danny Henry · Jul 17

SUBvs Chris Fishgold · Feb 19

vs Sung Bin Jo · Jun 19

KOvs Chase Hooper · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julio ArceMetricDaniel Teymur

4.36

Strikes / min

3.08

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.93

68%

Strike defense

56%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

0.56

96%

Takedown defense

60%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.31Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julio ArceDaniel Teymur

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julio Arce(10 fights)Daniel Teymur(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.9|Blue -11.9

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -188.0|Blue +188.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julio ArceTargetDaniel Teymur

By target zone

26% acc · 59%

Head

11% acc · 14%

68% acc · 33%

Body

57% acc · 11%

83% acc · 8%

Leg

58% acc · 76%

By position

32% acc · 83%

Distance

33% acc · 84%

73% acc · 13%

Clinch

67% acc · 16%

50% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julio Arce rounds

even

Daniel Teymur rounds

Round 1Julio Arce edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Julio Arce edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:08

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 3Julio Arce edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:12

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 178

Sig Strikes

37 / 102

34.7%

Sig Str %

35.7%

80 / 199

Total Strikes

39 / 105

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:20

Ctrl Time

1:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Teymur	18 / 35	18 / 35	0 / 0	0
1	Julio Arce	21 / 61	21 / 61	0 / 1	0
2	Daniel Teymur	13 / 46	15 / 49	0 / 2	0
2	Julio Arce	30 / 81	39 / 91	0 / 0	0
3	Daniel Teymur	6 / 21	6 / 21	0 / 0	0
3	Julio Arce	12 / 36	20 / 47	0 / 0	1

Julio Arce

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Daniel Teymur

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5