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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Julio Arce won · U-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1523

Julio ArcevsDaniel SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, April 9, 2022Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Julio Arce won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJulio Arce: Well-roundedvsDaniel Santos: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Daniel Santos wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Julio Arce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Santos at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julio Arce is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Daniel Santos has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Julio Arce has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Julio Arce has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Julio Arce (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Julio Arce

Red Corner

Daniel Santos

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1504

Elo

1523

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julio Arce

oldest →

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Nov 19

KOvs Andre Ewell · Jul 21

KOvs Song Yadong · Nov 21

vs Montel Jackson · Nov 22

KOvs Herbert Burns · Mar 24

latest

Daniel Santos

oldest →

KOvs John Castaneda · Oct 22

vs Johnny Munoz · Jun 23

vs JeongYeong Lee · May 25

KOvs JooSang Yoo · Oct 25

KOvs Dooho Choi · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julio ArceMetricDaniel Santos

4.36

Strikes / min

4.76

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

5.03

68%

Strike defense

51%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

3.01

96%

Takedown defense

73%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.31Δ 1.58 — meaningful gap-0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julio ArceDaniel Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julio Arce(10 fights)Daniel Santos(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.9|Blue +18.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julio ArceTargetDaniel Santos

By target zone

100

44% acc · 79%

Head

14% acc · 55%

71% acc · 20%

Body

63% acc · 31%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

88% acc · 14%

By position

125

48% acc · 98%

Distance

20% acc · 94%

67% acc · 2%

Clinch

75% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julio Arce rounds

even

Daniel Santos rounds

Round 1Julio Arce edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Julio Arce edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:17

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Julio Arce edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:01

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

127 / 265

Sig Strikes

49 / 229

48.3%

Sig Str %

21%

127 / 265

Total Strikes

49 / 229

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

0:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Santos	17 / 70	17 / 70	0 / 0
1	Julio Arce	39 / 78	39 / 78	0 / 0
2	Daniel Santos	18 / 79	18 / 79	0 / 1
2	Julio Arce	41 / 78	41 / 78	0 / 1
3	Daniel Santos	14 / 80	14 / 80	0 / 1
3	Julio Arce	47 / 109	47 / 109	0 / 0

Julio Arce

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Daniel Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights5