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Women's Featherweight

3 Rounds

Leah Letson won · S-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1494

Julija StoliarenkovsLeah LetsonUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · Friday, November 30, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Leah Letson won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Julija Stoliarenko wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Leah Letson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julija Stoliarenko at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leah Letson has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Leah Letson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Julija Stoliarenko

Red Corner

Leah Letson

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1487

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julija StoliarenkoL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jul 22

KOvs Chelsea Chandler · Oct 22

SUBvs Molly McCann · Jul 23

KOvs Luana Carolina · Feb 24

vs Gabriella Fernandes · Aug 25

latest

Leah Letson

oldest →

KOvs Felicia Spencer · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julija StoliarenkoMetricLeah Letson

2.74

Strikes / min

3.06

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

3.84

46%

Strike defense

52%

0.78

TDs / 15 min

0.51

54%

Takedown defense

76%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.71evenly matched on net striking-0.78

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julija Stoliarenko(9 fights)Leah Letson(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.4|Blue +6.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julija StoliarenkoTargetLeah Letson

By target zone

31% acc · 68%

Head

29% acc · 55%

50% acc · 12%

Body

73% acc · 26%

61% acc · 19%

Leg

88% acc · 19%

By position

34% acc · 88%

Distance

39% acc · 90%

71% acc · 9%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julija Stoliarenko rounds

even

Leah Letson rounds

Round 1Leah Letson edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2Leah Letson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:02

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 158

Sig Strikes

73 / 179

37.7%

Sig Str %

40.3%

66 / 168

Total Strikes

88 / 196

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

2:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Leah Letson	35 / 75	37 / 78	0 / 1	0
1	Julija Stoliarenko	24 / 72	24 / 72	0 / 0	0
2	Leah Letson	23 / 69	23 / 69	0 / 0	0
2	Julija Stoliarenko	15 / 50	15 / 50	0 / 2	0
3	Leah Letson	15 / 35	28 / 49	0 / 0	0
3	Julija Stoliarenko	18 / 36	27 / 46	0 / 2	1

Julija Stoliarenko

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Leah Letson

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2