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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Chelsea Chandler won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1487

Elo1502

Julija StoliarenkovsChelsea ChandlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Saturday, October 1, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chelsea Chandler won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:15

Model Prediction: Chelsea Chandler wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Chelsea Chandler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chelsea Chandler at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julija Stoliarenko has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Chelsea Chandler (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Julija Stoliarenko

Red Corner

Chelsea Chandler

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1487

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julija StoliarenkoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alexis Davis · Feb 22

SUBvs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jul 22

SUBvs Molly McCann · Jul 23

KOvs Luana Carolina · Feb 24

vs Gabriella Fernandes · Aug 25

latest

Chelsea Chandler

oldest →

vs Norma Dumont · Jul 23

vs Josiane Nunes · Mar 24

vs Yana Santos · Aug 24

KOvs Joselyne Edwards · Apr 25

SUBvs Priscila Cachoeira · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julija StoliarenkoMetricChelsea Chandler

2.74

Strikes / min

3.55

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.44

46%

Strike defense

40%

0.78

TDs / 15 min

0.87

54%

Takedown defense

28%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.71evenly matched on net striking-0.89

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julija StoliarenkoChelsea Chandler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julija Stoliarenko(9 fights)Chelsea Chandler(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.7|Blue +14.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julija StoliarenkoTargetChelsea Chandler

By target zone

28% acc · 42%

Head

53% acc · 89%

75% acc · 25%

Body

67% acc · 11%

80% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 45%

Clinch

Ground

78% acc · 55%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julija Stoliarenko rounds

even

Chelsea Chandler rounds

Round 1Chelsea Chandler edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:19

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 27

Sig Strikes

38 / 70

44%

Sig Str %

54%

20 / 36

Total Strikes

47 / 81

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

2:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chelsea Chandler	38 / 70	47 / 81	0 / 0	0
1	Julija Stoliarenko	12 / 27	20 / 36	1 / 3	0

Julija Stoliarenko

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Chelsea Chandler

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6