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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Julianna Pena won · SUB

Elo1496

Elo1495

Julianna PenavsSara McMannUFC Prediction Result

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · Saturday, January 23, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Julianna Pena won

SUB

Model Prediction: Julianna Pena wins(67.2%)

Actual result: Julianna Pena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julianna Pena at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julianna Pena has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sara McMann has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Julianna Pena

Red Corner

Sara McMann

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1496

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julianna Pena

oldest →

SUBvs Germaine de Randamie · Oct 20

SUBvs Amanda Nunes · Dec 21

vs Amanda Nunes · Jul 22

vs Raquel Pennington · Oct 24

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Jun 25

latest

Sara McMannW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Gina Mazany · Feb 17

SUBvs Ketlen Vieira · Sep 17

SUBvs Marion Reneau · Feb 18

vs Lina Lansberg · Jan 20

vs Karol Rosa · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julianna PenaMetricSara McMann

3.10

Strikes / min

2.26

2.56

Strikes absorbed / min

1.92

57%

Strike defense

47%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

4.38

24%

Takedown defense

50%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julianna PenaSara McMann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julianna Pena(10 fights)Sara McMann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -252.0|Blue +252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julianna PenaTargetSara McMann

By target zone

42% acc · 71%

Head

26% acc · 48%

100% acc · 29%

Body

70% acc · 33%

Leg

80% acc · 19%

By position

35% acc · 53%

Distance

28% acc · 57%

100% acc · 26%

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

89% acc · 21%

Ground

60% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julianna Pena rounds

even

Sara McMann rounds

Round 1Sara McMann edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:58Control

Round 2Sara McMann edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:08

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:11Control

Round 3Julianna Pena edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control2:47

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 76

Sig Strikes

21 / 54

47.7%

Sig Str %

33.7%

140 / 192

Total Strikes

28 / 63

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 3

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:55

Ctrl Time

7:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sara McMann	12 / 30	15 / 33	2 / 2	0
1	Julianna Pena	5 / 20	37 / 57	0 / 0	0
2	Sara McMann	8 / 17	11 / 22	1 / 1	0
2	Julianna Pena	13 / 29	70 / 93	0 / 0	0
3	Sara McMann	1 / 7	2 / 8	0 / 0	0
3	Julianna Pena	20 / 27	33 / 42	1 / 1	1

Julianna Pena

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12

Sara McMann

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights13