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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Julianna Pena won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1492

Julianna PenavsNicco MontanoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · Saturday, July 13, 2019Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Julianna Pena won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Nicco Montano wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Julianna Pena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nicco Montano at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nicco Montano has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nicco Montano (53.5%).
Julianna Pena has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Julianna Pena

Red Corner

Nicco Montano

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1496

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julianna Pena

oldest →

SUBvs Sara McMann · Jan 21

SUBvs Amanda Nunes · Dec 21

vs Amanda Nunes · Jul 22

vs Raquel Pennington · Oct 24

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Jun 25

latest

Nicco Montano

oldest →

vs Roxanne Modafferi · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julianna PenaMetricNicco Montano

3.10

Strikes / min

5.60

2.56

Strikes absorbed / min

4.43

57%

Strike defense

64%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

2.25

24%

Takedown defense

69%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking+1.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julianna PenaNicco Montano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julianna Pena(10 fights)Nicco Montano(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.6|Blue -4.6

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +307.0|Blue -307.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julianna PenaTargetNicco Montano

By target zone

44% acc · 71%

Head

26% acc · 34%

86% acc · 27%

Body

100% acc · 26%

33% acc · 2%

Leg

79% acc · 39%

By position

33% acc · 47%

Distance

46% acc · 68%

89% acc · 18%

Clinch

55% acc · 16%

94% acc · 36%

Ground

55% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julianna Pena rounds

even

Nicco Montano rounds

Round 1Nicco Montano edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:07Control

Round 2Julianna Pena edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control2:17

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:23Control

Round 3Julianna Pena edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control2:19

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 90

Sig Strikes

38 / 79

50.3%

Sig Str %

48.7%

108 / 158

Total Strikes

59 / 103

2 / 4

TDs

3 / 5

50%

TD %

77.7%

Sub Att

Rev

4:36

Ctrl Time

6:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nicco Montano	11 / 25	25 / 42	1 / 3
1	Julianna Pena	9 / 19	14 / 24	0 / 1
2	Nicco Montano	13 / 22	17 / 26	1 / 1
2	Julianna Pena	16 / 27	42 / 56	1 / 1
3	Nicco Montano	14 / 32	17 / 35	1 / 1
3	Julianna Pena	20 / 44	52 / 78	1 / 2

Julianna Pena

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12

Nicco Montano

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights2