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Women's Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Kayla Harrison won · SUB R2

Elo1496

Elo1527

Julianna PenavsKayla HarrisonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Saturday, June 7, 2025Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Kayla Harrison won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:55

Model Prediction: Kayla Harrison wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Kayla Harrison wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kayla Harrison at -700 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kayla Harrison threatens submissions; Julianna Pena has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Kayla Harrison has 76pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kayla Harrison (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Julianna Pena

Red Corner

Kayla Harrison

Blue Corner

+500

(17%)

Vegas Odds

-700

(88%)

1496

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julianna Pena

oldest →

SUBvs Germaine de Randamie · Oct 20

SUBvs Sara McMann · Jan 21

SUBvs Amanda Nunes · Dec 21

vs Amanda Nunes · Jul 22

vs Raquel Pennington · Oct 24

latest

Kayla HarrisonW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Holly Holm · Apr 24

vs Ketlen Vieira · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julianna PenaMetricKayla Harrison

3.10

Strikes / min

4.29

2.56

Strikes absorbed / min

1.10

57%

Strike defense

66%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

2.84

24%

Takedown defense

100%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54Δ 2.65 — meaningful gap+3.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julianna PenaKayla Harrison

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julianna Pena(10 fights)Kayla Harrison(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.0|Blue +31.0

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julianna PenaTargetKayla Harrison

By target zone

28% acc · 89%

Head

44% acc · 57%

100% acc · 11%

Body

90% acc · 30%

Leg

80% acc · 13%

By position

19% acc · 56%

Distance

42% acc · 50%

Clinch

86% acc · 20%

100% acc · 44%

Ground

82% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julianna Pena rounds

even

Kayla Harrison rounds

Round 1Kayla Harrison edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:35Control

Round 2Kayla Harrison edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 30

Sig Strikes

30 / 54

29%

Sig Str %

53%

15 / 37

Total Strikes

59 / 88

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

6:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kayla Harrison	8 / 24	24 / 41	1 / 2	0
1	Julianna Pena	6 / 17	9 / 20	0 / 0	0
2	Kayla Harrison	22 / 30	35 / 47	1 / 1	1
2	Julianna Pena	3 / 13	6 / 17	0 / 1	0

Julianna Pena

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12

Kayla Harrison

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3