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Women's Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Julianna Pena won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1496
Julianna Pena
Elo1355
Jessica Rakoczy

Julianna PenavsJessica RakoczyUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · Saturday, November 30, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Julianna Pena won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:59

Model Prediction: Jessica Rakoczy wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Julianna Pena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jessica Rakoczy at +260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Julianna Pena has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Julianna Pena
Red Corner
VS
Jessica Rakoczy
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
1496
Elo
1355
36
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julianna Pena
oldest →
W
SUBvs Sara McMann · Jan 21
W
SUBvs Amanda Nunes · Dec 21
L
vs Amanda Nunes · Jul 22
W
vs Raquel Pennington · Oct 24
L
SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Jun 25
latest
Jessica Rakoczy
oldest →
L
vs Valerie Letourneau · Apr 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julianna PenaMetricJessica Rakoczy
3.10
Strikes / min
2.50
2.56
Strikes absorbed / min
3.55
57%
Strike defense
64%
1.70
TDs / 15 min
0.75
24%
Takedown defense
0%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-1.05
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Julianna Pena(10 fights)Jessica Rakoczy(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +141.7|Blue -141.7
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julianna PenaTargetJessica Rakoczy

By target zone

32
43% acc · 97%
Head
2
100% acc · 50%
1
50% acc · 3%
Body
2
67% acc · 50%
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
2
100% acc · 50%
1
50% acc · 3%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 50%
32
46% acc · 97%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Julianna Pena rounds
0
even
0
Jessica Rakoczy rounds
Round 1Julianna Pena edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns2
Control4:29
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
33 / 76
Sig Strikes
4 / 5
43%
Sig Str %
80%
66 / 119
Total Strikes
8 / 9
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
4:29
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jessica Rakoczy4 / 58 / 90 / 00
1Julianna Pena33 / 7666 / 1192 / 20

Julianna Pena

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights12

Jessica Rakoczy

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach—
Fights2