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Women's Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Amanda Nunes won · U-DEC R5
Elo1496
Julianna Pena
Elo1501
Amanda Nunes

Julianna PenavsAmanda NunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Saturday, July 30, 2022Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Amanda Nunes won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Amanda Nunes wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Amanda Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Nunes at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Amanda Nunes has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Julianna Pena
Red Corner
VS
Amanda Nunes
Blue Corner
+205
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-245
(71%)
1496
Elo
1501
36
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julianna Pena
oldest →
L
SUBvs Germaine de Randamie · Oct 20
W
SUBvs Sara McMann · Jan 21
W
SUBvs Amanda Nunes · Dec 21
W
vs Raquel Pennington · Oct 24
L
SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Jun 25
latest
Amanda Nunes
oldest →
W
vs Germaine de Randamie · Dec 19
W
vs Felicia Spencer · Jun 20
W
SUBvs Megan Anderson · Mar 21
L
SUBvs Julianna Pena · Dec 21
W
vs Irene Aldana · Jun 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julianna PenaMetricAmanda Nunes
3.10
Strikes / min
4.55
2.56
Strikes absorbed / min
2.62
57%
Strike defense
57%
1.70
TDs / 15 min
2.73
24%
Takedown defense
82%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+1.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1577 vs 1654Strikes3.2 vs 4.5Takedowns1.9 vs 2.7Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.70Form0.7 vs -0.0
Julianna PenaAmanda Nunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Julianna Pena(10 fights)Amanda Nunes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -5.1|Blue +5.1
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julianna PenaTargetAmanda Nunes

By target zone

54
38% acc · 90%
Head
67
52% acc · 79%
6
60% acc · 10%
Body
10
71% acc · 12%
0
Leg
8
80% acc · 9%

By position

59
39% acc · 98%
Distance
57
49% acc · 67%
1
33% acc · 2%
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
28
82% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Julianna Pena rounds
0
even
5
Amanda Nunes rounds
Round 1Amanda Nunes edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Amanda Nunes edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:32Control
3Knockdowns
Round 3Amanda Nunes edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:02Control
Round 4Amanda Nunes edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:54Control
Round 5Amanda Nunes edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:21Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
3
60 / 154
Sig Strikes
85 / 152
42.4%
Sig Str %
62%
130 / 239
Total Strikes
126 / 201
0 / 0
TDs
6 / 8
—
TD %
66.5%
1
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
11:49

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Amanda Nunes25 / 4725 / 470 / 10
1Julianna Pena21 / 5121 / 510 / 00
2Amanda Nunes19 / 4824 / 530 / 00
2Julianna Pena25 / 6631 / 720 / 00
3Amanda Nunes14 / 2323 / 351 / 10
3Julianna Pena6 / 2131 / 550 / 00
4Julianna Pena4 / 1033 / 420 / 01
4Amanda Nunes16 / 2034 / 403 / 30
5Amanda Nunes11 / 1420 / 262 / 31
5Julianna Pena4 / 614 / 190 / 00

Julianna Pena

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights12

Amanda Nunes

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights18