Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Veronica Hardy won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1520

Juliana MillervsVeronica HardyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Saturday, March 18, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Veronica Hardy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Juliana Miller wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Veronica Hardy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Juliana Miller at -350 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Veronica Hardy (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Juliana Miller

Red Corner

Veronica Hardy

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1487

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Juliana Miller

oldest →

KOvs Brogan Walker · Aug 22

KOvs Luana Santos · Aug 23

vs Ivana Petrovic · May 25

vs Carli Judice · Feb 26

latest

Veronica Hardy

oldest →

vs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Dec 23

vs JJ Aldrich · May 24

vs Eduarda Moura · Nov 24

vs Brogan Walker · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Juliana MillerMetricVeronica Hardy

2.65

Strikes / min

3.06

4.14

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

44%

Strike defense

50%

2.16

TDs / 15 min

0.82

44%

Takedown defense

51%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.49Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Juliana MillerVeronica Hardy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Juliana Miller(5 fights)Veronica Hardy(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -32.7|Blue +32.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Juliana MillerTargetVeronica Hardy

By target zone

32% acc · 67%

Head

75% acc · 63%

64% acc · 30%

Body

86% acc · 19%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

34% acc · 73%

Distance

74% acc · 52%

78% acc · 23%

Clinch

83% acc · 8%

20% acc · 3%

Ground

89% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Juliana Miller rounds

even

Veronica Hardy rounds

Round 1Veronica Hardy edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:46

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 2Veronica Hardy edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:19

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:45Control

Round 3Veronica Hardy edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:14

20Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 79

Sig Strikes

62 / 77

34.3%

Sig Str %

81.3%

49 / 98

Total Strikes

78 / 95

0 / 3

TDs

4 / 4

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:19

Ctrl Time

7:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Veronica Hardy	26 / 35	32 / 41	0 / 0	0
1	Juliana Miller	19 / 45	25 / 51	0 / 1	0
2	Veronica Hardy	16 / 19	20 / 24	0 / 0	0
2	Juliana Miller	8 / 20	12 / 24	0 / 2	2
3	Veronica Hardy	20 / 23	26 / 30	4 / 4	0
3	Juliana Miller	3 / 14	12 / 23	0 / 0	1

Juliana Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights5

Veronica Hardy

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights5