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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Carli Judice won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1542

Juliana MillervsCarli JudiceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Saturday, February 21, 2026Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Carli Judice won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJuliana Miller: WrestlervsCarli Judice: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Carli Judice wins(67.2%)

Actual result: Carli Judice wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carli Judice at -850 American odds

+$12 profit

$112 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carli Judice has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Carli Judice has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Carli Judice (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Juliana Miller

Red Corner

Carli Judice

Blue Corner

+590

(14%)

Vegas Odds

-850

(89%)

1487

Elo

1542

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Juliana Miller

oldest →

KOvs Brogan Walker · Aug 22

vs Veronica Hardy · Mar 23

KOvs Luana Santos · Aug 23

vs Ivana Petrovic · May 25

latest

Carli JudiceW2 streak

oldest →

vs Gabriella Fernandes · Jun 24

KOvs Yuneisy Duben · Mar 25

KOvs Nicolle Caliari · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Juliana MillerMetricCarli Judice

2.65

Strikes / min

9.32

4.14

Strikes absorbed / min

6.62

44%

Strike defense

57%

2.16

TDs / 15 min

0.52

44%

Takedown defense

80%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.49Δ 4.19 — meaningful gap+2.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Juliana MillerCarli Judice

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Juliana Miller(5 fights)Carli Judice(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -54.4|Blue +54.4

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Juliana MillerTargetCarli Judice

By target zone

24% acc · 67%

Head

37% acc · 67%

55% acc · 31%

Body

59% acc · 25%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

75% acc · 8%

By position

27% acc · 81%

Distance

42% acc · 95%

54% acc · 19%

Clinch

75% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Juliana Miller rounds

even

Carli Judice rounds

Round 1Carli Judice edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:58

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 2Carli Judice edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Carli Judice edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:40

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 122

Sig Strikes

79 / 185

30.7%

Sig Str %

43.3%

46 / 138

Total Strikes

104 / 214

2 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

16.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:38

Ctrl Time

1:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carli Judice	18 / 40	37 / 61	0 / 0	0
1	Juliana Miller	10 / 25	15 / 32	1 / 4	0
2	Carli Judice	35 / 89	36 / 91	0 / 0	0
2	Juliana Miller	17 / 58	18 / 61	0 / 5	0
3	Carli Judice	26 / 56	31 / 62	0 / 0	0
3	Juliana Miller	9 / 39	13 / 45	1 / 4	1

Juliana Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights5

Carli Judice

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4