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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Marc-Andre Barriault won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1481

Elo1478

Julian MarquezvsMarc-Andre BarriaultUFC Prediction Result

UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Saturday, March 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marc-Andre Barriault won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:12

Style matchupJulian Marquez: Pressure fightervsMarc-Andre Barriault: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Marc-Andre Barriault wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Marc-Andre Barriault wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marc-Andre Barriault at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julian Marquez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Marc-Andre Barriault is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Julian Marquez has lost 80% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Julian Marquez

Red Corner

Marc-Andre Barriault

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1481

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julian MarquezL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Maki Pitolo · Feb 21

SUBvs Sam Alvey · Apr 21

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 22

KOvs Zachary Reese · Jun 24

KOvs Cody Brundage · Mar 25

latest

Marc-Andre BarriaultL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Jun 24

KOvs Dustin Stoltzfus · Nov 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · May 25

vs Shara Magomedov · Jul 25

vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julian MarquezMetricMarc-Andre Barriault

5.06

Strikes / min

5.65

5.35

Strikes absorbed / min

5.94

50%

Strike defense

49%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.34

54%

Takedown defense

68%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julian MarquezMarc-Andre Barriault

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julian Marquez(8 fights)Marc-Andre Barriault(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.6|Blue -3.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julian MarquezTargetMarc-Andre Barriault

By target zone

44% acc · 77%

Head

45% acc · 83%

56% acc · 12%

Body

90% acc · 17%

82% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

45% acc · 77%

Distance

45% acc · 55%

63% acc · 23%

Clinch

55% acc · 45%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julian Marquez rounds

even

Marc-Andre Barriault rounds

Round 1Julian Marquez edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marc-Andre Barriault edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

77Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:29Control

Fight Stats

Totals

82 / 171

Sig Strikes

109 / 222

48.5%

Sig Str %

47%

83 / 172

Total Strikes

127 / 246

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marc-Andre Barriault	32 / 80	32 / 80	0 / 0
1	Julian Marquez	48 / 107	48 / 107	0 / 0
2	Marc-Andre Barriault	77 / 142	95 / 166	0 / 0
2	Julian Marquez	34 / 64	35 / 65	0 / 1

Julian Marquez

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Marc-Andre Barriault

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17