Middleweight

3 Rounds

Julian Marquez won · SUB R2

Elo1481

Elo1407

Julian MarquezvsDarren StewartUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, December 16, 2017Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Official fight result

Julian Marquez won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:42

Style matchupJulian Marquez: Pressure fightervsDarren Stewart: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Darren Stewart wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Julian Marquez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Stewart at +280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julian Marquez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Darren Stewart enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Julian Marquez

Red Corner

Darren Stewart

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1481

Elo

1407

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julian MarquezL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sam Alvey · Apr 21

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 22

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Mar 23

KOvs Zachary Reese · Jun 24

KOvs Cody Brundage · Mar 25

latest

Darren StewartL3 streak

oldest →

vs Deron Winn · Oct 19

SUBvs Maki Pitolo · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Sep 20

vs Eryk Anders · Jun 21

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Aug 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julian MarquezMetricDarren Stewart

5.06

Strikes / min

3.05

5.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.29

50%

Strike defense

48%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.75

54%

Takedown defense

67%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julian MarquezDarren Stewart

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julian Marquez(8 fights)Darren Stewart(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +74.7|Blue -74.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julian MarquezTargetDarren Stewart

By target zone

48% acc · 91%

Head

53% acc · 85%

75% acc · 9%

Body

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

27% acc · 25%

Distance

47% acc · 48%

71% acc · 53%

Clinch

74% acc · 52%

70% acc · 22%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julian Marquez rounds

even

Darren Stewart rounds

Round 1Darren Stewart edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:20

19Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:22Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:34

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 64

Sig Strikes

33 / 58

48.5%

Sig Str %

57.5%

37 / 69

Total Strikes

37 / 66

0 / 3

TDs

4 / 6

TD %

40%

Sub Att

Rev

0:54

Ctrl Time

3:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darren Stewart	19 / 36	23 / 44	4 / 5	0
1	Julian Marquez	21 / 40	26 / 45	0 / 1	1
2	Darren Stewart	14 / 22	14 / 22	0 / 1	0
2	Julian Marquez	11 / 24	11 / 24	0 / 2	2

Julian Marquez

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Darren Stewart

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights12