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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Teruto Ishihara won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1495

Elo1371

Julian ErosavsTeruto IshiharaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · Saturday, March 5, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Teruto Ishihara won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:34

Model Prediction: Julian Erosa wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Teruto Ishihara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julian Erosa at -175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Teruto Ishihara enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Teruto Ishihara is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Julian Erosa has lost 78% of fights by KO.
Julian Erosa has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Julian Erosa has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Julian Erosa

Red Corner

Teruto Ishihara

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1495

Elo

1371

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'7"

187.96 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julian ErosaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24

SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24

KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25

vs Melquizael Costa · May 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Teruto IshiharaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gray Maynard · Jul 17

vs Rolando Dy · Sep 17

vs Jose Quinonez · Feb 18

KOvs Petr Yan · Jun 18

SUBvs Kyung Ho Kang · Feb 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julian ErosaMetricTeruto Ishihara

6.18

Strikes / min

3.26

6.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

48%

Strike defense

53%

1.73

TDs / 15 min

0.50

61%

Takedown defense

30%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julian ErosaTeruto Ishihara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julian Erosa(10 fights)Teruto Ishihara(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +124.1|Blue -124.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julian ErosaTargetTeruto Ishihara

By target zone

15% acc · 25%

Head

45% acc · 70%

69% acc · 56%

Body

100% acc · 11%

75% acc · 19%

Leg

83% acc · 19%

By position

37% acc · 88%

Distance

56% acc · 81%

50% acc · 13%

Clinch

25% acc · 4%

0% acc

Ground

50% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julian Erosa rounds

even

Teruto Ishihara rounds

Round 1Teruto Ishihara edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:03

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Teruto Ishihara edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 44

Sig Strikes

27 / 51

37.5%

Sig Str %

56.5%

24 / 52

Total Strikes

31 / 55

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Teruto Ishihara	22 / 43	26 / 47	0 / 0
1	Julian Erosa	14 / 39	22 / 47	1 / 1
2	Teruto Ishihara	5 / 8	5 / 8	0 / 0
2	Julian Erosa	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Teruto Ishihara

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8