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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Julian Erosa won · S-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1455

Julian ErosavsSteven PetersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Saturday, February 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Julian Erosa won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJulian Erosa: Pressure fightervsSteven Peterson: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Julian Erosa wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Julian Erosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julian Erosa at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).
Julian Erosa has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Julian Erosa

Red Corner

Steven Peterson

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1495

Elo

1455

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julian ErosaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24

SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24

KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25

vs Melquizael Costa · May 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Steven Peterson

oldest →

vs Luis Pena · Mar 19

vs Alex Caceres · Jul 19

KOvs Martin Bravo · Sep 19

vs Chase Hooper · Jun 21

vs Lucas Alexander · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julian ErosaMetricSteven Peterson

6.18

Strikes / min

4.76

6.31

Strikes absorbed / min

5.94

48%

Strike defense

53%

1.73

TDs / 15 min

1.42

61%

Takedown defense

64%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap-1.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julian ErosaSteven Peterson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julian Erosa(10 fights)Steven Peterson(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.2|Blue -39.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julian ErosaTargetSteven Peterson

By target zone

120

50% acc · 77%

Head

113

55% acc · 76%

70% acc · 19%

Body

88% acc · 10%

83% acc · 3%

Leg

77% acc · 14%

By position

141

52% acc · 91%

Distance

133

59% acc · 90%

56% acc · 6%

Clinch

79% acc · 10%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julian Erosa rounds

even

Steven Peterson rounds

Round 1Julian Erosa edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Steven Peterson edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns1

Control0:12

59Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 3Julian Erosa edged it

Sig. strikes62

Takedowns2

Control1:40

50Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

155 / 291

Sig Strikes

148 / 247

53%

Sig Str %

59%

163 / 300

Total Strikes

174 / 276

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 2

66.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:52

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Steven Peterson	39 / 71	41 / 73	0 / 1	0
1	Julian Erosa	45 / 96	49 / 100	0 / 0	0
2	Steven Peterson	59 / 96	63 / 100	0 / 1	0
2	Julian Erosa	48 / 103	50 / 105	1 / 3	0
3	Steven Peterson	50 / 80	70 / 103	0 / 0	2
3	Julian Erosa	62 / 92	64 / 95	2 / 2	0

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Steven Peterson

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8