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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Melquizael Costa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1564

Julian ErosavsMelquizael CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · Saturday, May 17, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Melquizael Costa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJulian Erosa: Pressure fightervsMelquizael Costa: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Melquizael Costa wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Melquizael Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melquizael Costa at -164 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julian Erosa threatens submissions; Melquizael Costa has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Julian Erosa

Red Corner

Melquizael Costa

Blue Corner

+138

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-164

(62%)

1495

Elo

1564

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julian Erosa

oldest →

KOvs Fernando Padilla · Apr 23

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24

SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24

KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Melquizael Costa

oldest →

SUBvs Andre Fili · Feb 25

vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25

KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25

KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 26

DECvs Arnold Allen · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julian ErosaMetricMelquizael Costa

6.18

Strikes / min

4.38

6.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

48%

Strike defense

54%

1.73

TDs / 15 min

2.00

61%

Takedown defense

58%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap+1.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julian ErosaMelquizael Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julian Erosa(10 fights)Melquizael Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -68.9|Blue +68.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julian ErosaTargetMelquizael Costa

By target zone

30% acc · 61%

Head

42% acc · 66%

75% acc · 26%

Body

73% acc · 16%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

86% acc · 19%

By position

37% acc · 80%

Distance

51% acc · 97%

62% acc · 19%

Clinch

43% acc · 3%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julian Erosa rounds

even

Melquizael Costa rounds

Round 1Melquizael Costa edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:36

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Melquizael Costa edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns2

Control1:56

33Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Melquizael Costa edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control1:02

37Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 173

Sig Strikes

102 / 204

39.3%

Sig Str %

50.7%

85 / 202

Total Strikes

128 / 236

3 / 10

TDs

2 / 3

27.7%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

3:34

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Melquizael Costa	32 / 75	32 / 75	0 / 0	0
1	Julian Erosa	10 / 26	10 / 27	1 / 3	0
2	Melquizael Costa	33 / 55	47 / 70	1 / 2	1
2	Julian Erosa	23 / 54	30 / 62	2 / 4	0
3	Melquizael Costa	37 / 74	49 / 91	1 / 1	0
3	Julian Erosa	36 / 93	45 / 113	0 / 3	0

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Melquizael Costa

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9