← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Julian Erosa won · S-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1490

Julian ErosavsMarcin WrzosekUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · Friday, December 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Julian Erosa won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJulian Erosa: Pressure fightervsMarcin Wrzosek: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Julian Erosa wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Julian Erosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julian Erosa at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julian Erosa has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).
Julian Erosa has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Julian Erosa

Red Corner

Marcin Wrzosek

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1495

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

178 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julian ErosaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24

SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24

KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25

vs Melquizael Costa · May 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Marcin WrzosekNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julian ErosaMetricMarcin Wrzosek

6.18

Strikes / min

3.47

6.31

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

48%

Strike defense

43%

1.73

TDs / 15 min

3.00

61%

Takedown defense

33%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.60

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julian Erosa(10 fights)Marcin Wrzosek(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.2|Blue -4.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julian ErosaTargetMarcin Wrzosek

By target zone

44% acc · 51%

Head

39% acc · 75%

82% acc · 46%

Body

80% acc · 8%

67% acc · 3%

Leg

60% acc · 17%

By position

49% acc · 59%

Distance

37% acc · 65%

71% acc · 36%

Clinch

62% acc · 25%

75% acc · 5%

Ground

83% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julian Erosa rounds

even

Marcin Wrzosek rounds

Round 1Julian Erosa edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:52

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:47Control

Round 2Marcin Wrzosek edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control1:01

16Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:07Control

Round 3Julian Erosa edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns2

Control1:46

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 108

Sig Strikes

52 / 119

57.7%

Sig Str %

42.7%

107 / 159

Total Strikes

124 / 204

2 / 3

TDs

3 / 12

66%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:39

Ctrl Time

4:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcin Wrzosek	11 / 27	48 / 67	0 / 2	0
1	Julian Erosa	20 / 29	41 / 53	0 / 0	1
2	Marcin Wrzosek	16 / 38	38 / 63	3 / 3	0
2	Julian Erosa	19 / 32	34 / 48	0 / 0	0
3	Marcin Wrzosek	25 / 54	38 / 74	0 / 7	0
3	Julian Erosa	22 / 47	32 / 58	2 / 3	1

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Marcin Wrzosek

Stance—

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights1