Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Featherweight
3 Rounds
Lerryan Douglas won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1495
Julian Erosa
Elo1524

Julian ErosavsLerryan DouglasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Saturday, March 28, 2026Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Lerryan Douglas won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:33

Style matchupJulian Erosa: Pressure fightervsLerryan Douglas: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Lerryan Douglas wins(71.5%)

Actual result: Lerryan Douglas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lerryan Douglas at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Lerryan Douglas is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Julian Erosa has lost 78% of fights by KO.
  • Lerryan Douglas has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Julian Erosa has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Julian Erosa
Red Corner
VS
Lerryan Douglas
Blue Corner
+235
(30%)
Vegas Odds
-320
(76%)
1495
Elo
1524
37
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'9"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julian Erosa
oldest →
L
KOvs Fernando Padilla · Apr 23
W
SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24
W
SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24
W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25
L
vs Melquizael Costa · May 25
latest
Lerryan DouglasNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julian ErosaMetricLerryan Douglas
6.18
Strikes / min
8.67
6.31
Strikes absorbed / min
4.82
48%
Strike defense
63%
1.73
TDs / 15 min
0.00
61%
Takedown defense
0%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.13Δ 3.98 — meaningful gap+3.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1533 vs 1500Strikes6.2 vs 8.7Takedowns1.7 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.70 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs 0.0
Julian ErosaLerryan Douglas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Julian Erosa(10 fights)Lerryan Douglas(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -29.0|Blue +29.0
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Grappler Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julian ErosaTargetLerryan Douglas

By target zone

13
33% acc · 76%
Head
18
49% acc · 62%
2
100% acc · 12%
Body
3
100% acc · 10%
2
50% acc · 12%
Leg
8
100% acc · 28%

By position

16
36% acc · 94%
Distance
25
64% acc · 86%
1
100% acc · 6%
Clinch
2
33% acc · 7%
0
Ground
2
67% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Julian Erosa rounds
0
even
1
Lerryan Douglas rounds
Round 1Lerryan Douglas edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns0
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
2Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
17 / 46
Sig Strikes
29 / 48
36%
Sig Str %
60%
18 / 47
Total Strikes
30 / 49
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Lerryan Douglas29 / 4830 / 490 / 00
1Julian Erosa17 / 4618 / 470 / 00

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18

Lerryan Douglas

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights1