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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Fernando Padilla won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1495

Elo1497

Julian ErosavsFernando PadillaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · Saturday, April 29, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Fernando Padilla won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:41

Style matchupJulian Erosa: Pressure fightervsFernando Padilla: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Fernando Padilla wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Fernando Padilla wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fernando Padilla at +134 American odds

+$134 profit

$234 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fernando Padilla is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Julian Erosa has lost 78% of fights by KO.
Fernando Padilla has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Julian Erosa

Red Corner

Fernando Padilla

Blue Corner

-158

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+134

(43%)

1495

Elo

1497

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julian ErosaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24

SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24

KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25

vs Melquizael Costa · May 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Fernando Padilla

oldest →

vs Kyle Nelson · Sep 23

SUBvs Luis Pajuelo · Mar 24

KOvs Sean Woodson · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julian ErosaMetricFernando Padilla

6.18

Strikes / min

6.07

6.31

Strikes absorbed / min

5.74

48%

Strike defense

52%

1.73

TDs / 15 min

0.00

61%

Takedown defense

100%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julian ErosaFernando Padilla

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julian Erosa(10 fights)Fernando Padilla(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julian ErosaTargetFernando Padilla

By target zone

50% acc · 60%

Head

68% acc · 85%

100% acc · 7%

Body

67% acc · 10%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

63% acc · 100%

Distance

68% acc · 95%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julian Erosa rounds

even

Fernando Padilla rounds

Round 1Fernando Padilla edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 24

Sig Strikes

20 / 29

62%

Sig Str %

68%

15 / 24

Total Strikes

20 / 29

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Fernando Padilla	20 / 29	20 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Julian Erosa	15 / 24	15 / 24	0 / 1	0

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Fernando Padilla

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4