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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Julian Erosa won · SUB R1

Elo1495

Elo1521

Julian ErosavsChristian RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Saturday, July 13, 2024Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Julian Erosa won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:49

Style matchupJulian Erosa: Pressure fightervsChristian Rodriguez: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Christian Rodriguez wins(53.7%)

Actual result: Julian Erosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Christian Rodriguez at -270 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Julian Erosa

Red Corner

Christian Rodriguez

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-270

(73%)

1495

Elo

1521

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'7"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julian ErosaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Fernando Padilla · Apr 23

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24

KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25

vs Melquizael Costa · May 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Christian Rodriguez

oldest →

vs Isaac Dulgarian · Mar 24

vs Austin Bashi · Jan 25

vs Melquizael Costa · Mar 25

vs Andre Fili · Aug 25

SUBvs Hyder Amil · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julian ErosaMetricChristian Rodriguez

6.18

Strikes / min

3.85

6.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.85

48%

Strike defense

56%

1.73

TDs / 15 min

1.75

61%

Takedown defense

67%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julian ErosaChristian Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julian Erosa(10 fights)Christian Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -26.6|Blue +26.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julian ErosaTargetChristian Rodriguez

By target zone

37% acc · 77%

Head

39% acc · 79%

54% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 6%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

83% acc · 15%

By position

39% acc · 94%

Distance

42% acc · 94%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julian Erosa rounds

even

Christian Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Julian Erosa edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns1

Control0:41

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 88

Sig Strikes

33 / 75

39%

Sig Str %

44%

39 / 94

Total Strikes

33 / 76

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Christian Rodriguez	33 / 75	33 / 76	0 / 0	0
1	Julian Erosa	35 / 88	39 / 94	1 / 1	1

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Christian Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10