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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Julian Erosa won · SUB R3

Elo1495

Elo1529

Julian ErosavsCharles JourdainUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Saturday, September 4, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Julian Erosa won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:56

Style matchupJulian Erosa: Pressure fightervsCharles Jourdain: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Charles Jourdain wins(53.6%)

Actual result: Julian Erosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Jourdain at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Jourdain enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Julian Erosa has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Jourdain (54.1%).
Julian Erosa has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Julian Erosa

Red Corner

Charles Jourdain

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1495

Elo

1529

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julian ErosaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24

SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24

KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25

vs Melquizael Costa · May 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Charles JourdainW3 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Woodson · Jan 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jun 24

SUBvs Victor Henry · Nov 24

SUBvs Davey Grant · Oct 25

DECvs Kyler Phillips · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julian ErosaMetricCharles Jourdain

6.18

Strikes / min

5.36

6.31

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

48%

Strike defense

56%

1.73

TDs / 15 min

0.38

61%

Takedown defense

46%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julian ErosaCharles Jourdain

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julian Erosa(10 fights)Charles Jourdain(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.7|Blue +34.7

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julian ErosaTargetCharles Jourdain

By target zone

39% acc · 64%

Head

42% acc · 59%

76% acc · 28%

Body

70% acc · 25%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

93% acc · 16%

By position

43% acc · 78%

Distance

50% acc · 75%

85% acc · 21%

Clinch

63% acc · 24%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julian Erosa rounds

even

Charles Jourdain rounds

Round 1Julian Erosa edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:38

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Charles Jourdain edged it

Sig. strikes55

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

50Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Julian Erosa edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control1:57

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

103 / 214

Sig Strikes

85 / 163

48.3%

Sig Str %

50%

106 / 217

Total Strikes

103 / 181

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:35

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Jourdain	21 / 57	26 / 62	0 / 0	0
1	Julian Erosa	31 / 69	32 / 70	0 / 3	0
2	Charles Jourdain	50 / 78	50 / 78	0 / 0	0
2	Julian Erosa	55 / 113	56 / 114	0 / 0	0
3	Charles Jourdain	14 / 28	27 / 41	0 / 0	0
3	Julian Erosa	17 / 32	18 / 33	2 / 2	1

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Charles Jourdain

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15