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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Julia Polastri won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1483

Julia PolastrivsKarolina KowalkiewiczUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Saturday, October 11, 2025Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Julia Polastri won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:56

Style matchupJulia Polastri: Pressure fightervsKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Julia Polastri wins(70.1%)

Actual result: Julia Polastri wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julia Polastri at -590 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Julia Polastri

Red Corner

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Blue Corner

-590

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+430

(19%)

1491

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'3"

160.02 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julia PolastriL2 streak

oldest →

vs Josefine Knutsson · Jun 24

vs Cory McKenna · Oct 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Mar 25

DECvs Talita Alencar · Apr 26

latest

Karolina KowalkiewiczL2 streak

oldest →

vs Silvana Gomez Juarez · Nov 22

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julia PolastriMetricKarolina Kowalkiewicz

6.22

Strikes / min

5.54

5.18

Strikes absorbed / min

5.77

59%

Strike defense

56%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

0.36

57%

Takedown defense

74%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julia PolastriKarolina Kowalkiewicz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julia Polastri(5 fights)Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.6|Blue -7.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julia PolastriTargetKarolina Kowalkiewicz

By target zone

44% acc · 62%

Head

20% acc · 33%

86% acc · 31%

Body

63% acc · 50%

91% acc · 7%

Leg

86% acc · 17%

By position

123

53% acc · 90%

Distance

38% acc · 99%

70% acc · 10%

Clinch

33% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julia Polastri rounds

even

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

Round 1Julia Polastri edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns0

Control0:46

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Julia Polastri edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 3Julia Polastri edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

137 / 253

Sig Strikes

72 / 192

54%

Sig Str %

37%

142 / 261

Total Strikes

75 / 196

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	22 / 61	25 / 64	0 / 3
1	Julia Polastri	53 / 93	58 / 101	0 / 0
2	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	30 / 68	30 / 69	1 / 1
2	Julia Polastri	46 / 96	46 / 96	0 / 0
3	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	20 / 63	20 / 63	0 / 0
3	Julia Polastri	38 / 64	38 / 64	0 / 0

Julia Polastri

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights5

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19