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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Julia Polastri won · S-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1493

Julia PolastrivsCory McKennaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Saturday, October 12, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Julia Polastri won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJulia Polastri: Pressure fightervsCory McKenna: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Julia Polastri wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Julia Polastri wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julia Polastri at -108 American odds

+$93 profit

$193 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julia Polastri has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Cory McKenna has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Julia Polastri has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Julia Polastri

Red Corner

Cory McKenna

Blue Corner

-108

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-112

(53%)

1491

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'3"

160.02 cm

Reach

147.32 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julia Polastri

oldest →

vs Josefine Knutsson · Jun 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Mar 25

KOvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Oct 25

DECvs Talita Alencar · Apr 26

latest

Cory McKenna

oldest →

vs Kay Hansen · Nov 20

vs Elise Reed · Mar 22

SUBvs Miranda Granger · Aug 22

vs Cheyanne Vlismas · Dec 22

SUBvs Jaqueline Amorim · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julia PolastriMetricCory McKenna

6.22

Strikes / min

2.94

5.18

Strikes absorbed / min

3.68

59%

Strike defense

46%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

2.00

57%

Takedown defense

75%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04Δ 1.78 — meaningful gap-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julia PolastriCory McKenna

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julia Polastri(5 fights)Cory McKenna(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.4|Blue +2.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julia PolastriTargetCory McKenna

By target zone

43% acc · 45%

Head

27% acc · 75%

90% acc · 40%

Body

75% acc · 15%

93% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

53% acc · 61%

Distance

31% acc · 88%

82% acc · 36%

Clinch

63% acc · 13%

50% acc · 2%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julia Polastri rounds

even

Cory McKenna rounds

Round 1Julia Polastri edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control1:05

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:38Control

Round 2Julia Polastri edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control1:57

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Julia Polastri edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:11

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 145

Sig Strikes

40 / 124

59.3%

Sig Str %

31.7%

142 / 203

Total Strikes

98 / 198

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 6

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

3:13

Ctrl Time

5:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cory McKenna	17 / 42	43 / 69	0 / 2
1	Julia Polastri	40 / 58	58 / 79	0 / 0
2	Cory McKenna	15 / 44	20 / 50	0 / 1
2	Julia Polastri	26 / 43	49 / 66	0 / 1
3	Cory McKenna	8 / 38	35 / 79	1 / 3
3	Julia Polastri	22 / 44	35 / 58	0 / 0

Julia Polastri

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights5

Cory McKenna

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach58.0"

Fights6