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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jacqueline Cavalcanti won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1538

Julia AvilavsJacqueline CavalcantiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Saturday, February 15, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jacqueline Cavalcanti won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jacqueline Cavalcanti wins(82.8%)

Actual result: Jacqueline Cavalcanti wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacqueline Cavalcanti at -720 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jacqueline Cavalcanti has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Julia Avila

Red Corner

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Blue Corner

+520

(16%)

Vegas Odds

-720

(88%)

1490

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julia Avila

oldest →

vs Pannie Kianzad · Jul 19

KOvs Gina Mazany · Jun 20

vs Sijara Eubanks · Sep 20

SUBvs Julija Stoliarenko · Jun 21

SUBvs Miesha Tate · Dec 23

latest

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

oldest →

vs Zarah Fairn · Sep 23

vs Josiane Nunes · Aug 24

vs Nora Cornolle · Sep 24

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Nov 25

DECvs Ketlen Vieira · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julia AvilaMetricJacqueline Cavalcanti

2.81

Strikes / min

5.65

3.28

Strikes absorbed / min

3.17

55%

Strike defense

68%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

0.00

52%

Takedown defense

88%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47Δ 2.95 — meaningful gap+2.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julia AvilaJacqueline Cavalcanti

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julia Avila(6 fights)Jacqueline Cavalcanti(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -47.4|Blue +47.4

Recent Form

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +301.0|Blue -301.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julia AvilaTargetJacqueline Cavalcanti

By target zone

20% acc · 31%

Head

31% acc · 74%

50% acc · 17%

Body

85% acc · 15%

82% acc · 52%

Leg

80% acc · 11%

By position

38% acc · 94%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

75% acc · 6%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julia Avila rounds

even

Jacqueline Cavalcanti rounds

Round 1Jacqueline Cavalcanti edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:23

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jacqueline Cavalcanti edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:16

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 138

Sig Strikes

73 / 199

38.3%

Sig Str %

35.7%

57 / 145

Total Strikes

75 / 201

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:39

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jacqueline Cavalcanti	32 / 81	32 / 81	0 / 0
1	Julia Avila	24 / 49	24 / 49	0 / 0
2	Jacqueline Cavalcanti	17 / 54	17 / 54	0 / 1
2	Julia Avila	12 / 35	15 / 40	1 / 1
3	Jacqueline Cavalcanti	24 / 64	26 / 66	0 / 0
3	Julia Avila	18 / 54	18 / 56	0 / 1

Julia Avila

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5