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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Juan Espino won · SUB R1

Elo1493

Elo1491

Juan EspinovsJustin FrazierUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · Friday, November 30, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Juan Espino won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:36

Model Prediction: Juan Espino wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Juan Espino wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Juan Espino at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Juan Espino has 36pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Juan Espino has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Frazier (53.5%).
Juan Espino has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Juan Espino

Red Corner

Justin Frazier

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1493

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'0"

203.2 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Juan Espino

oldest →

SUBvs Jeff Hughes · Sep 20

vs Alexandr Romanov · Apr 21

latest

Justin FrazierNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Juan EspinoMetricJustin Frazier

2.38

Strikes / min

1.11

1.95

Strikes absorbed / min

6.11

40%

Strike defense

8.93

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

2.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43Δ 5.43 — meaningful gap-5.00

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Juan Espino(3 fights)Justin Frazier(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Juan EspinoTargetJustin Frazier

By target zone

95% acc · 86%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

Distance

0% acc

100% acc · 23%

Clinch

80% acc · 100%

94% acc · 77%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Juan Espino rounds

even

Justin Frazier rounds

Round 1Juan Espino edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns2

Control3:20

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 23

Sig Strikes

4 / 6

95%

Sig Str %

66%

44 / 52

Total Strikes

17 / 19

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:20

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Frazier	4 / 6	17 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Juan Espino	22 / 23	44 / 52	2 / 2	2

Juan Espino

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights3

Justin Frazier

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights1