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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Juan Espino won · SUB
Elo1493
Elo1389

Juan EspinovsJeff HughesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Saturday, September 26, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Juan Espino won

SUB

Model Prediction: Juan Espino wins(81.9%)

Actual result: Juan Espino wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Juan Espino at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Juan Espino threatens submissions; Jeff Hughes has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Jeff Hughes has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Juan Espino
Red Corner
VS
Jeff Hughes
Blue Corner
-305
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+233
(30%)
1493
Elo
1389
45
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'2"
203.2 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Juan Espino
oldest →
W
SUBvs Justin Frazier · Nov 18
L
vs Alexandr Romanov · Apr 21
latest
Jeff HughesL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Maurice Greene · Mar 19
L
DECvs Raphael Pessoa Nunes · Oct 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Juan EspinoMetricJeff Hughes
2.38
Strikes / min
3.95
1.95
Strikes absorbed / min
3.67
40%
Strike defense
60%
8.93
TDs / 15 min
0.71
50%
Takedown defense
45%
2.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1474Strikes6.1 vs 4.3Takedowns8.3 vs 0.8Sub Atts8.30 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs -1.0
Juan EspinoJeff Hughes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Juan Espino(3 fights)Jeff Hughes(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +104.2|Blue -104.2
Recent Form
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +330.0|Blue -330.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Juan EspinoTargetJeff Hughes

By target zone

9
64% acc · 90%
Head
0
1
100% acc · 10%
Body
0
0
0% acc
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

2
29% acc · 20%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
8
80% acc · 80%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Juan Espino rounds
0
even
0
Jeff Hughes rounds
Round 1Juan Espino edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns5
Control2:36
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
10 / 17
Sig Strikes
0 / 1
58%
Sig Str %
0%
21 / 29
Total Strikes
0 / 1
5 / 7
TDs
0 / 0
71%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:36
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jeff Hughes0 / 10 / 10 / 00
1Juan Espino10 / 1721 / 295 / 71

Juan Espino

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights3

Jeff Hughes

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights3