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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Justin Tafa won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1381

Elo1495

Juan AdamsvsJustin TafaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Saturday, February 8, 2020Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Justin Tafa won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:59

Style matchupJuan Adams: Pressure fightervsJustin Tafa: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Juan Adams wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Justin Tafa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Juan Adams at -240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Tafa is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Juan Adams has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Justin Tafa has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).
Juan Adams has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Juan Adams

Red Corner

Justin Tafa

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1381

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'5"

Height

6'0"

203.2 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Juan AdamsL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris de la Rocha · Dec 18

vs Arjan Bhullar · May 19

KOvs Greg Hardy · Jul 19

latest

Justin TafaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Dec 21

KOvs Parker Porter · Feb 23

KOvs Austen Lane · Sep 23

vs Karl Williams · Mar 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Juan AdamsMetricJustin Tafa

7.09

Strikes / min

4.05

4.06

Strikes absorbed / min

5.11

34%

Strike defense

47%

0.91

TDs / 15 min

0.00

57%

Takedown defense

53%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.03Δ 4.09 — meaningful gap-1.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Juan AdamsJustin Tafa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Juan Adams(4 fights)Justin Tafa(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -114.2|Blue +114.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Juan AdamsTargetJustin Tafa

By target zone

75% acc · 43%

Head

56% acc · 50%

50% acc · 29%

Body

0% acc

67% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

64% acc · 100%

Distance

73% acc · 80%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

Ground

33% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Juan Adams rounds

even

Justin Tafa rounds

Round 1Justin Tafa edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 11

Sig Strikes

10 / 15

63%

Sig Str %

66%

7 / 11

Total Strikes

10 / 15

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Tafa	10 / 15	10 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Juan Adams	7 / 11	7 / 11	0 / 0	0

Juan Adams

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights4

Justin Tafa

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9