← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marcus McGhee won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1466

Elo1528

JP BuysvsMarcus McGheeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, August 12, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marcus McGhee won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:19

Style matchupJP Buys: Submission grapplervsMarcus McGhee: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Marcus McGhee wins(77.8%)

Actual result: Marcus McGhee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcus McGhee at -355 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

JP Buys enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Marcus McGhee has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Marcus McGhee has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

JP Buys

Red Corner

Marcus McGhee

Blue Corner

+280

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-355

(78%)

1466

Elo

1528

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

JP BuysL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bruno Silva · Mar 21

vs Montel Jackson · Sep 21

KOvs Cody Durden · Jun 22

latest

Marcus McGhee

oldest →

SUBvs Journey Newson · Apr 23

KOvs Gaston Bolanos · Jan 24

vs Jonathan Martinez · Nov 24

vs Petr Yan · Jul 25

DECvs John Yannis · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

JP BuysMetricMarcus McGhee

1.88

Strikes / min

5.50

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

3.64

40%

Strike defense

57%

1.55

TDs / 15 min

0.31

25%

Takedown defense

90%

2.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.14Δ 3.00 — meaningful gap+1.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

JP BuysMarcus McGhee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

JP Buys(4 fights)Marcus McGhee(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -61.8|Blue +61.8

Recent Form

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +308.0|Blue -308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

JP BuysTargetMarcus McGhee

By target zone

9% acc · 50%

Head

55% acc · 86%

33% acc · 25%

Body

20% acc · 25%

Leg

50% acc · 14%

By position

14% acc · 100%

Distance

54% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

JP Buys rounds

even

Marcus McGhee rounds

Round 1Marcus McGhee edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 30

Sig Strikes

7 / 13

13%

Sig Str %

53%

4 / 30

Total Strikes

7 / 13

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcus McGhee	7 / 13	7 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	JP Buys	4 / 30	4 / 30	0 / 1	0

JP Buys

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4

Marcus McGhee

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7