← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Cody Durden won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1466

Elo1458

JP BuysvsCody DurdenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Saturday, June 25, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cody Durden won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:08

Style matchupJP Buys: Submission grapplervsCody Durden: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Cody Durden wins(74.3%)

Actual result: Cody Durden wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cody Durden at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

JP Buys enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cody Durden has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Cody Durden has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cody Durden (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

JP Buys

Red Corner

Cody Durden

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1466

Elo

1458

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

JP BuysL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bruno Silva · Mar 21

vs Montel Jackson · Sep 21

KOvs Marcus McGhee · Aug 23

latest

Cody Durden

oldest →

KOvs Jose Ochoa · Jun 25

SUBvs Allan Nascimento · Nov 25

vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Mar 26

DECvs Jafel Filho · Apr 26

SUBvs Alessandro Costa · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

JP BuysMetricCody Durden

1.88

Strikes / min

3.24

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

3.94

40%

Strike defense

50%

1.55

TDs / 15 min

3.99

25%

Takedown defense

56%

2.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.14evenly matched on net striking-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

JP BuysCody Durden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

JP Buys(4 fights)Cody Durden(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.0|Blue -8.0

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

JP BuysTargetCody Durden

By target zone

57% acc · 57%

Head

75% acc · 91%

100% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 9%

67% acc · 29%

Leg

By position

56% acc · 71%

Distance

67% acc · 35%

100% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

82% acc · 61%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

JP Buys rounds

even

Cody Durden rounds

Round 1Cody Durden edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 11

Sig Strikes

23 / 30

63%

Sig Str %

76%

7 / 11

Total Strikes

34 / 41

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cody Durden	23 / 30	34 / 41	0 / 0	0
1	JP Buys	7 / 11	7 / 11	0 / 2	0

JP Buys

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4

Cody Durden

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights17