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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Randy Costa won · KO/TKO
Elo1459
Elo1436

Journey NewsonvsRandy CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Saturday, September 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Randy Costa won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Randy Costa wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Randy Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randy Costa at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Randy Costa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Randy Costa (52.9%).
  • Randy Costa has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Journey Newson
Red Corner
VS
Randy Costa
Blue Corner
-137
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
1459
Elo
1436
37
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'5"
Height
5'9"
170.18 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Journey NewsonL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Ricardo Ramos · Jun 19
W
vs Domingo Pilarte · Feb 20
W
vs Fernie Garcia · May 22
L
vs Sergey Morozov · Dec 22
L
SUBvs Marcus McGhee · Apr 23
latest
Randy CostaL3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Brandon Davis · Apr 19
W
KOvs Boston Salmon · Oct 19
L
KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 21
L
KOvs Tony Kelley · Dec 21
L
SUBvs Guido Cannetti · Oct 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Journey NewsonMetricRandy Costa
2.64
Strikes / min
6.53
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
7.58
64%
Strike defense
58%
0.56
TDs / 15 min
0.00
43%
Takedown defense
50%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.07Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap-1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1499Strikes2.8 vs 8.1Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 0.2
Journey NewsonRandy Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Journey Newson(6 fights)Randy Costa(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +22.5|Blue -22.5
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -113.0|Blue +113.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Journey NewsonTargetRandy Costa

By target zone

1
25% acc · 100%
Head
4
67% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

1
20% acc · 100%
Distance
2
50% acc · 50%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Journey Newson rounds
0
even
1
Randy Costa rounds
Round 1Randy Costa edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
1 / 5
Sig Strikes
4 / 6
20%
Sig Str %
66%
1 / 5
Total Strikes
4 / 6
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Randy Costa4 / 64 / 60 / 00
1Journey Newson1 / 51 / 50 / 00

Journey Newson

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights6

Randy Costa

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6