← All fights/Event page

Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Marcus McGhee won · SUB R2

Elo1459

Elo1528

Journey NewsonvsMarcus McGheeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · Saturday, April 29, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marcus McGhee won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:03

Model Prediction: Marcus McGhee wins(74.2%)

Actual result: Marcus McGhee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcus McGhee at +138 American odds

+$138 profit

$238 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marcus McGhee has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Journey Newson

Red Corner

Marcus McGhee

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

+138

(42%)

1459

Elo

1528

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Journey Newson

oldest →

vs Ricardo Ramos · Jun 19

vs Domingo Pilarte · Feb 20

KOvs Randy Costa · Sep 20

vs Fernie Garcia · May 22

vs Sergey Morozov · Dec 22

latest

Marcus McGhee

oldest →

KOvs JP Buys · Aug 23

KOvs Gaston Bolanos · Jan 24

vs Jonathan Martinez · Nov 24

vs Petr Yan · Jul 25

DECvs John Yannis · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Journey NewsonMetricMarcus McGhee

2.64

Strikes / min

5.50

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.64

64%

Strike defense

57%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.31

43%

Takedown defense

90%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07Δ 1.79 — meaningful gap+1.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Journey NewsonMarcus McGhee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Journey Newson(6 fights)Marcus McGhee(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -69.6|Blue +69.6

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Journey NewsonTargetMarcus McGhee

By target zone

18% acc · 46%

Head

36% acc · 56%

57% acc · 31%

Body

82% acc · 36%

60% acc · 23%

Leg

67% acc · 8%

By position

27% acc · 92%

Distance

45% acc · 84%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

75% acc · 12%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Journey Newson rounds

even

Marcus McGhee rounds

Round 1Marcus McGhee edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:34

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marcus McGhee edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:29

Knockdowns0

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 46

Sig Strikes

25 / 53

40%

Sig Str %

49.5%

13 / 46

Total Strikes

25 / 54

0 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcus McGhee	19 / 42	19 / 43	0 / 0	0
1	Journey Newson	9 / 39	9 / 39	0 / 3	0
2	Marcus McGhee	6 / 11	6 / 11	0 / 0	1
2	Journey Newson	4 / 7	4 / 7	0 / 3	0

Journey Newson

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6

Marcus McGhee

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7