Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Journey Newson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1459

Elo1484

Journey NewsonvsFernie GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 7, 2022Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Journey Newson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Fernie Garcia wins(59.0%)

Actual result: Journey Newson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fernie Garcia at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Journey Newson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Fernie Garcia enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Journey Newson has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Journey Newson

Red Corner

Fernie Garcia

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1459

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Journey NewsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ricardo Ramos · Jun 19

vs Domingo Pilarte · Feb 20

KOvs Randy Costa · Sep 20

vs Sergey Morozov · Dec 22

SUBvs Marcus McGhee · Apr 23

latest

Fernie GarciaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Brady Hiestand · Nov 22

vs Rinya Nakamura · Aug 23

KOvs Hyder Amil · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Journey NewsonMetricFernie Garcia

2.64

Strikes / min

2.04

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.79

64%

Strike defense

48%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.28

43%

Takedown defense

50%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07Δ 1.82 — meaningful gap-1.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Journey NewsonFernie Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Journey Newson(6 fights)Fernie Garcia(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.6|Blue +25.6

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Journey NewsonTargetFernie Garcia

By target zone

25% acc · 40%

Head

29% acc · 65%

70% acc · 37%

Body

50% acc · 16%

62% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

38% acc · 91%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Journey Newson rounds

even

Fernie Garcia rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:17

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Journey Newson edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Journey Newson edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:25

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 143

Sig Strikes

37 / 103

38%

Sig Str %

36%

63 / 150

Total Strikes

38 / 104

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:42

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Fernie Garcia	11 / 27	12 / 28	0 / 0
1	Journey Newson	7 / 41	8 / 42	1 / 2
2	Fernie Garcia	14 / 41	14 / 41	0 / 0
2	Journey Newson	28 / 52	29 / 53	0 / 0
3	Fernie Garcia	12 / 35	12 / 35	0 / 0
3	Journey Newson	22 / 50	26 / 55	1 / 1

Journey Newson

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6

Fernie Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4