Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joshua Van won · U-DEC R3

Elo1599

Elo1519

Joshua VanvsRei TsuruyaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joshua Van won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoshua Van: Pressure fightervsRei Tsuruya: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rei Tsuruya wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Joshua Van wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rei Tsuruya at +132 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joshua Van enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Joshua Van has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Joshua Van has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joshua Van

Red Corner

Rei Tsuruya

Blue Corner

-156

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+132

(43%)

1599

Elo

1519

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joshua VanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Cody Durden · Dec 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 25

vs Brandon Royval · Jun 25

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · May 26

latest

Rei TsuruyaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Carlos Hernandez · Jun 24

SUBvs Luis Gurule · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joshua VanMetricRei Tsuruya

8.43

Strikes / min

2.24

5.82

Strikes absorbed / min

2.01

58%

Strike defense

42%

0.82

TDs / 15 min

5.06

75%

Takedown defense

50%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.61Δ 2.38 — meaningful gap+0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joshua VanRei Tsuruya

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joshua Van(10 fights)Rei Tsuruya(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +79.9|Blue -79.9

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Layoff

Red -161.0|Blue +161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joshua VanTargetRei Tsuruya

By target zone

53% acc · 66%

Head

36% acc · 88%

86% acc · 32%

Body

50% acc · 6%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

59% acc · 90%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

0% acc

50% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joshua Van rounds

even

Rei Tsuruya rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:06

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 2Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:25

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:24Control

Round 3Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:19

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 97

Sig Strikes

32 / 84

60.7%

Sig Str %

38.3%

127 / 169

Total Strikes

47 / 104

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 21

—

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

0:50

Ctrl Time

3:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rei Tsuruya	6 / 14	13 / 24	2 / 6
1	Joshua Van	17 / 29	37 / 51	0 / 0
2	Rei Tsuruya	11 / 33	19 / 43	1 / 9
2	Joshua Van	18 / 28	31 / 41	0 / 0
3	Rei Tsuruya	15 / 37	15 / 37	1 / 6
3	Joshua Van	24 / 40	59 / 77	0 / 0

Joshua Van

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights11

Rei Tsuruya

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5