Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joshua Van won · U-DEC R3

Elo1599

Elo1486

Joshua VanvsKevin BorjasUFC Prediction Result

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 11, 2023New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Joshua Van won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoshua Van: Pressure fightervsKevin Borjas: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Joshua Van wins(74.3%)

Actual result: Joshua Van wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joshua Van enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Joshua Van

Red Corner

Kevin Borjas

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1599

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joshua VanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Rei Tsuruya · Mar 25

KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 25

vs Brandon Royval · Jun 25

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · May 26

latest

Kevin Borjas

oldest →

KOvs Alessandro Costa · May 24

vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · Mar 25

vs Sumudaerji · Aug 25

KOvs Imanol Rodriguez · Feb 26

DECvs Andre Lima · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joshua VanMetricKevin Borjas

8.43

Strikes / min

3.96

5.82

Strikes absorbed / min

5.64

58%

Strike defense

49%

0.82

TDs / 15 min

0.00

75%

Takedown defense

70%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.61Δ 4.29 — meaningful gap-1.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joshua VanKevin Borjas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joshua Van(10 fights)Kevin Borjas(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +112.8|Blue -112.8

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joshua VanTargetKevin Borjas

By target zone

41% acc · 59%

Head

32% acc · 72%

86% acc · 31%

Body

75% acc · 12%

94% acc · 10%

Leg

80% acc · 16%

By position

153

52% acc · 98%

Distance

38% acc · 97%

60% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joshua Van rounds

even

Kevin Borjas rounds

Round 1Kevin Borjas edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:01

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes77

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes59

Takedowns2

Control1:02

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

156 / 300

Sig Strikes

75 / 197

50.3%

Sig Str %

37.7%

165 / 311

Total Strikes

78 / 200

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 3

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kevin Borjas	23 / 58	24 / 59	0 / 1
1	Joshua Van	20 / 42	20 / 42	0 / 0
2	Kevin Borjas	27 / 74	27 / 74	0 / 1
2	Joshua Van	77 / 144	77 / 144	0 / 0
3	Kevin Borjas	25 / 65	27 / 67	0 / 1
3	Joshua Van	59 / 114	68 / 125	2 / 4

Joshua Van

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights11

Kevin Borjas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7