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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joshua Van won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1599

Elo1474

Joshua VanvsFelipe BunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Saturday, January 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joshua Van won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:31

Style matchupJoshua Van: Pressure fightervsFelipe Bunes: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Joshua Van wins(78.2%)

Actual result: Joshua Van wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joshua Van at -298 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joshua Van enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Joshua Van has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Joshua Van has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Felipe Bunes has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joshua Van

Red Corner

Felipe Bunes

Blue Corner

-298

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1599

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joshua VanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Rei Tsuruya · Mar 25

KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 25

vs Brandon Royval · Jun 25

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · May 26

latest

Felipe BunesL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jose Johnson · Jan 25

vs Rafael Estevam · Aug 25

vs Edgar Chairez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joshua VanMetricFelipe Bunes

8.43

Strikes / min

3.17

5.82

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

58%

Strike defense

47%

0.82

TDs / 15 min

1.08

75%

Takedown defense

40%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.61Δ 4.01 — meaningful gap-1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joshua VanFelipe Bunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joshua Van(10 fights)Felipe Bunes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +125.5|Blue -125.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joshua VanTargetFelipe Bunes

By target zone

54% acc · 76%

Head

45% acc · 58%

79% acc · 18%

Body

69% acc · 22%

83% acc · 6%

Leg

91% acc · 20%

By position

53% acc · 73%

Distance

54% acc · 98%

82% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

87% acc · 16%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joshua Van rounds

even

Felipe Bunes rounds

Round 1Felipe Bunes edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:06

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 2Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes69

Takedowns1

Control1:08

Knockdowns1

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:20Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 141

Sig Strikes

50 / 91

51.5%

Sig Str %

54.5%

154 / 222

Total Strikes

57 / 101

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 6

100%

TD %

37.5%

Sub Att

Rev

1:14

Ctrl Time

2:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Felipe Bunes	29 / 54	29 / 54	1 / 2
1	Joshua Van	14 / 41	23 / 51	0 / 0
2	Felipe Bunes	21 / 37	28 / 47	1 / 4
2	Joshua Van	69 / 100	131 / 171	1 / 1

Joshua Van

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights11

Felipe Bunes

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4