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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Charles Johnson won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1599

Elo1507

Joshua VanvsCharles JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Saturday, July 13, 2024Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Charles Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:20

Style matchupJoshua Van: Pressure fightervsCharles Johnson: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Joshua Van wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Charles Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joshua Van at -270 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joshua Van enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Johnson (52.9%).
Charles Johnson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joshua Van

Red Corner

Charles Johnson

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1599

Elo

1507

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'5"

Height

5'9"

165.1 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joshua VanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Rei Tsuruya · Mar 25

KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 25

vs Brandon Royval · Jun 25

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · May 26

latest

Charles Johnson

oldest →

vs Ramazan Temirov · Mar 25

KOvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Aug 25

KOvs Alex Perez · Jan 26

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 26

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joshua VanMetricCharles Johnson

8.43

Strikes / min

4.77

5.82

Strikes absorbed / min

4.02

58%

Strike defense

55%

0.82

TDs / 15 min

0.51

75%

Takedown defense

69%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.61Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joshua VanCharles Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joshua Van(10 fights)Charles Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +92.5|Blue -92.5

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joshua VanTargetCharles Johnson

By target zone

42% acc · 66%

Head

35% acc · 50%

85% acc · 25%

Body

61% acc · 28%

86% acc · 9%

Leg

73% acc · 22%

By position

49% acc · 90%

Distance

46% acc · 95%

78% acc · 10%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joshua Van rounds

even

Charles Johnson rounds

Round 1Charles Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:15

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Charles Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 133

Sig Strikes

88 / 191

41.7%

Sig Str %

54.3%

72 / 140

Total Strikes

90 / 195

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

0:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Charles Johnson	44 / 80	46 / 83	0 / 2
1	Joshua Van	22 / 46	27 / 53	1 / 1
2	Charles Johnson	36 / 100	36 / 101	0 / 0
2	Joshua Van	44 / 83	44 / 83	0 / 0
3	Charles Johnson	8 / 11	8 / 11	0 / 0
3	Joshua Van	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 0

Joshua Van

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights11

Charles Johnson

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15