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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Zak Ottow won · S-DEC R3

Elo1364

Elo1491

Joshua BurkmanvsZak OttowUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · Saturday, October 1, 2016Portland, Oregon, USA

Official fight result

Zak Ottow won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoshua Burkman: WrestlervsZak Ottow: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Joshua Burkman wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Zak Ottow wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joshua Burkman at -260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joshua Burkman enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Joshua Burkman has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joshua Burkman

Red Corner

Zak Ottow

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1364

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joshua BurkmanL4 streak

oldest →

vs KJ Noons · Feb 16

vs Paul Felder · May 16

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Mar 17

KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 17

SUBvs Alex Morono · Feb 18

latest

Zak Ottow

oldest →

KOvs Li Jingliang · Nov 17

KOvs Mike Pyle · Mar 18

KOvs Sage Northcutt · Jul 18

vs Dwight Grant · Dec 18

KOvs Alex Morono · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joshua BurkmanMetricZak Ottow

2.69

Strikes / min

2.63

3.13

Strikes absorbed / min

2.73

51%

Strike defense

58%

2.53

TDs / 15 min

0.97

72%

Takedown defense

57%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joshua BurkmanZak Ottow

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joshua Burkman(8 fights)Zak Ottow(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -127.5|Blue +127.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joshua BurkmanTargetZak Ottow

By target zone

16% acc · 26%

Head

29% acc · 48%

42% acc · 17%

Body

70% acc · 22%

82% acc · 57%

Leg

87% acc · 31%

By position

35% acc · 89%

Distance

43% acc · 95%

83% acc · 11%

Clinch

67% acc · 3%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joshua Burkman rounds

even

Zak Ottow rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Zak Ottow edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:16

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 126

Sig Strikes

65 / 149

37.3%

Sig Str %

43%

50 / 129

Total Strikes

80 / 165

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

16.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:16

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Zak Ottow	16 / 37	16 / 37	0 / 0	0
1	Joshua Burkman	17 / 38	17 / 38	0 / 1	0
2	Zak Ottow	28 / 61	28 / 61	0 / 0	0
2	Joshua Burkman	13 / 47	13 / 47	0 / 1	0
3	Zak Ottow	21 / 51	36 / 67	0 / 2	1
3	Joshua Burkman	17 / 41	20 / 44	1 / 2	0

Joshua Burkman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Zak Ottow

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8