Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paul Felder won · U-DEC R3

Elo1364

Elo1392

Joshua BurkmanvsPaul FelderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · Sunday, May 29, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Paul Felder won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoshua Burkman: WrestlervsPaul Felder: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Paul Felder wins(59.6%)

Actual result: Paul Felder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Felder at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joshua Burkman enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Joshua Burkman

Red Corner

Paul Felder

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-290

(74%)

1364

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joshua BurkmanL4 streak

oldest →

vs KJ Noons · Feb 16

vs Zak Ottow · Oct 16

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Mar 17

KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 17

SUBvs Alex Morono · Feb 18

latest

Paul FelderL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Perry · Jul 18

vs James Vick · Feb 19

vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19

vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joshua BurkmanMetricPaul Felder

2.69

Strikes / min

3.70

3.13

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

51%

Strike defense

48%

2.53

TDs / 15 min

0.29

72%

Takedown defense

64%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joshua BurkmanPaul Felder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joshua Burkman(8 fights)Paul Felder(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.7|Blue +27.7

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -20.0|Blue +20.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joshua BurkmanTargetPaul Felder

By target zone

28% acc · 40%

Head

24% acc · 37%

60% acc · 15%

Body

82% acc · 34%

62% acc · 45%

Leg

80% acc · 29%

By position

41% acc · 95%

Distance

40% acc · 88%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

83% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joshua Burkman rounds

even

Paul Felder rounds

Round 1Joshua Burkman edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control1:16

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Paul Felder edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:01

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control1:07

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 97

Sig Strikes

41 / 95

37.7%

Sig Str %

42%

41 / 98

Total Strikes

53 / 107

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 2

38.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:24

Ctrl Time

1:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paul Felder	8 / 29	10 / 31	0 / 0
1	Joshua Burkman	25 / 42	26 / 43	1 / 2
2	Paul Felder	17 / 35	22 / 40	0 / 1
2	Joshua Burkman	5 / 28	5 / 28	0 / 1
3	Paul Felder	16 / 31	21 / 36	0 / 1
3	Joshua Burkman	10 / 27	10 / 27	2 / 3

Joshua Burkman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Paul Felder

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15