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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joshua Burkman won · U-DEC R3
Elo1364
Elo1356
KJ Noons

Joshua BurkmanvsKJ NoonsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · Saturday, February 6, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joshua Burkman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoshua Burkman: WrestlervsKJ Noons: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Joshua Burkman wins(73.9%)

Actual result: Joshua Burkman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joshua Burkman at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joshua Burkman enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • KJ Noons has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Joshua Burkman
Red Corner
VS
KJ Noons
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
1364
Elo
1356
46
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joshua BurkmanL5 streak
oldest →
L
vs Paul Felder · May 16
L
vs Zak Ottow · Oct 16
L
SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Mar 17
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 17
L
SUBvs Alex Morono · Feb 18
latest
KJ Noons
oldest →
L
vs Donald Cerrone · May 13
W
vs George Sotiropoulos · Oct 13
W
KOvs Sam Stout · Apr 14
L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · May 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joshua BurkmanMetricKJ Noons
2.69
Strikes / min
3.68
3.13
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
51%
Strike defense
65%
2.53
TDs / 15 min
0.08
72%
Takedown defense
68%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1468 vs 1502Strikes29.5 vs 26.0Takedowns2.1 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.31 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -0.4
Joshua BurkmanKJ Noons

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Joshua Burkman(8 fights)KJ Noons(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +7.7|Blue -7.7
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -85.0|Blue +85.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joshua BurkmanTargetKJ Noons

By target zone

16
27% acc · 28%
Head
26
52% acc · 79%
11
85% acc · 19%
Body
7
54% acc · 21%
30
83% acc · 53%
Leg
0

By position

51
52% acc · 89%
Distance
20
42% acc · 61%
3
75% acc · 5%
Clinch
13
87% acc · 39%
3
60% acc · 5%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Joshua Burkman rounds
0
even
0
KJ Noons rounds
Round 1Joshua Burkman edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Joshua Burkman edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns1
Control0:27
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Joshua Burkman edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns2
Control2:37
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
57 / 108
Sig Strikes
33 / 63
52%
Sig Str %
49.7%
62 / 114
Total Strikes
45 / 76
3 / 10
TDs
0 / 0
61%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:04
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1KJ Noons3 / 73 / 70 / 00
1Joshua Burkman19 / 3719 / 370 / 00
2KJ Noons10 / 1810 / 180 / 00
2Joshua Burkman24 / 4424 / 441 / 10
3KJ Noons20 / 3832 / 510 / 00
3Joshua Burkman14 / 2719 / 332 / 90

Joshua Burkman

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights8

KJ Noons

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights5