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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Drew Dober won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1364

Elo1514

Joshua BurkmanvsDrew DoberUFC Prediction Result

UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Saturday, July 29, 2017Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Drew Dober won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:04

Style matchupJoshua Burkman: WrestlervsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Joshua Burkman wins(68.4%)

Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joshua Burkman at +255 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joshua Burkman enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joshua Burkman

Red Corner

Drew Dober

Blue Corner

+255

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-310

(76%)

1364

Elo

1514

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joshua BurkmanL4 streak

oldest →

vs KJ Noons · Feb 16

vs Paul Felder · May 16

vs Zak Ottow · Oct 16

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Mar 17

SUBvs Alex Morono · Feb 18

latest

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joshua BurkmanMetricDrew Dober

2.69

Strikes / min

4.48

3.13

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

51%

Strike defense

53%

2.53

TDs / 15 min

0.61

72%

Takedown defense

58%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joshua BurkmanDrew Dober

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joshua Burkman(8 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -149.8|Blue +149.8

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joshua BurkmanTargetDrew Dober

By target zone

57% acc · 36%

Head

29% acc · 33%

67% acc · 36%

Body

67% acc · 27%

60% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 40%

By position

50% acc · 64%

Distance

43% acc · 60%

100% acc · 36%

Clinch

71% acc · 33%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joshua Burkman rounds

even

Drew Dober rounds

Round 1Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 18

Sig Strikes

15 / 29

61%

Sig Str %

51%

11 / 18

Total Strikes

20 / 34

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Drew Dober	15 / 29	20 / 34	0 / 1	0
1	Joshua Burkman	11 / 18	11 / 18	0 / 1	0

Joshua Burkman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26