Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Morono won · SUB R1

Elo1364

Elo1478

Joshua BurkmanvsAlex MoronoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · Sunday, February 18, 2018Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Alex Morono won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:12

Style matchupJoshua Burkman: WrestlervsAlex Morono: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alex Morono wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Alex Morono wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Morono at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joshua Burkman enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alex Morono enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Joshua Burkman has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joshua Burkman

Red Corner

Alex Morono

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-360

(78%)

1364

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joshua BurkmanL4 streak

oldest →

vs KJ Noons · Feb 16

vs Paul Felder · May 16

vs Zak Ottow · Oct 16

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Mar 17

KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 17

latest

Alex MoronoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Court McGee · Apr 24

vs Niko Price · Jun 24

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25

vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joshua BurkmanMetricAlex Morono

2.69

Strikes / min

4.90

3.13

Strikes absorbed / min

4.88

51%

Strike defense

55%

2.53

TDs / 15 min

0.32

72%

Takedown defense

47%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joshua BurkmanAlex Morono

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joshua Burkman(8 fights)Alex Morono(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -113.6|Blue +113.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +55.0|Blue -55.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joshua BurkmanTargetAlex Morono

By target zone

0% acc

Head

17% acc · 29%

0% acc

Body

80% acc · 100%

Leg

71% acc · 71%

By position

31% acc · 100%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joshua Burkman rounds

even

Alex Morono rounds

Round 1Alex Morono edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 13

Sig Strikes

7 / 19

30%

Sig Str %

36%

4 / 13

Total Strikes

7 / 19

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Morono	7 / 19	7 / 19	0 / 0	1
1	Joshua Burkman	4 / 13	4 / 13	0 / 0	0

Joshua Burkman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Alex Morono

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights23