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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tony Ferguson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1485

Josh ThomsonvsTony FergusonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · Wednesday, July 15, 2015San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Tony Ferguson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJosh Thomson: Submission grapplervsTony Ferguson: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(68.7%)

Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Ferguson at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tony Ferguson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Thomson

Red Corner

Tony Ferguson

Blue Corner

+230

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-270

(73%)

1355

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh ThomsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Apr 13

vs Benson Henderson · Jan 14

vs Bobby Green · Jul 14

latest

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh ThomsonMetricTony Ferguson

2.59

Strikes / min

4.91

2.12

Strikes absorbed / min

4.37

64%

Strike defense

55%

1.92

TDs / 15 min

0.39

54%

Takedown defense

66%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.47evenly matched on net striking+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh ThomsonTony Ferguson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Thomson(4 fights)Tony Ferguson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -130.1|Blue +130.1

Recent Form

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +217.0|Blue -217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh ThomsonTargetTony Ferguson

By target zone

22% acc · 52%

Head

56% acc · 61%

71% acc · 36%

Body

41% acc · 18%

67% acc · 12%

Leg

81% acc · 20%

By position

33% acc · 82%

Distance

48% acc · 70%

23% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

60% acc · 9%

Ground

88% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Thomson rounds

even

Tony Ferguson rounds

Round 1Josh Thomson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:02

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:13

Knockdowns0

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:39Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:18

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 100

Sig Strikes

83 / 149

32.3%

Sig Str %

53.7%

35 / 102

Total Strikes

101 / 167

1 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

16.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:33

Ctrl Time

1:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tony Ferguson	15 / 44	21 / 50	0 / 0	0
1	Josh Thomson	18 / 36	20 / 38	1 / 3	0
2	Tony Ferguson	43 / 56	55 / 68	0 / 0	2
2	Josh Thomson	8 / 28	8 / 28	0 / 0	0
3	Tony Ferguson	25 / 49	25 / 49	0 / 1	0
3	Josh Thomson	7 / 36	7 / 36	0 / 3	0

Josh Thomson

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24