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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Bobby Green won · S-DEC R3
Elo1355
Josh Thomson
Elo1445

Josh ThomsonvsBobby GreenUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · Saturday, July 26, 2014San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Bobby Green won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Bobby Green wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Bobby Green wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bobby Green at +340 American odds

+$340 profit

$440 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Josh Thomson
Red Corner
VS
Bobby Green
Blue Corner
-380
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+340
(23%)
1355
Elo
1445
47
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh ThomsonL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Nate Diaz · Apr 13
L
vs Benson Henderson · Jan 14
L
vs Tony Ferguson · Jul 15
latest
Bobby GreenL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Rafael Fiziev · Aug 21
W
KOvs Al Iaquinta · Nov 21
W
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Feb 22
L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Feb 22
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Dec 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh ThomsonMetricBobby Green
2.59
Strikes / min
—
2.12
Strikes absorbed / min
—
64%
Strike defense
—
1.92
TDs / 15 min
—
54%
Takedown defense
—
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1506 vs 1556Strikes23.8 vs 51.3Takedowns2.0 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.33Form-0.3 vs 1.0
Josh ThomsonBobby Green

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Josh Thomson(4 fights)Bobby Green(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -90.4|Blue +90.4
Recent Form
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -42.0|Blue +42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Josh Thomson

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4

Bobby Green

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9