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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jeremy Kimball won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1361

Elo1367

Josh StansburyvsJeremy KimballUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · Sunday, June 25, 2017Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA

Official fight result

Jeremy Kimball won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:21

Model Prediction: Josh Stansbury wins(74.7%)

Actual result: Jeremy Kimball wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Stansbury at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Kimball enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jeremy Kimball is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Josh Stansbury has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Josh Stansbury has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jeremy Kimball (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Josh Stansbury

Red Corner

Jeremy Kimball

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1361

Elo

1367

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'2"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh Stansbury

oldest →

vs Cory Hendricks · Jul 16

vs Devin Clark · Dec 16

latest

Jeremy KimballL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Jan 17

SUBvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 17

KOvs Darko Stosic · Jul 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh StansburyMetricJeremy Kimball

3.22

Strikes / min

2.81

3.54

Strikes absorbed / min

3.84

54%

Strike defense

49%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.41

87%

Takedown defense

50%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.32evenly matched on net striking-1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh StansburyJeremy Kimball

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Stansbury(3 fights)Jeremy Kimball(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.8|Blue +5.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh StansburyTargetJeremy Kimball

By target zone

13% acc · 25%

Head

62% acc · 76%

50% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

89% acc · 47%

Clinch

33% acc · 6%

Ground

62% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Stansbury rounds

even

Jeremy Kimball rounds

Round 1Jeremy Kimball edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:23

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 12

Sig Strikes

17 / 25

33%

Sig Str %

68%

5 / 13

Total Strikes

21 / 29

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jeremy Kimball	17 / 25	21 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Josh Stansbury	4 / 12	5 / 13	0 / 1	0

Josh Stansbury

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3

Jeremy Kimball

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4