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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Tamdan McCrory won · SUB R3

Elo1357

Elo1358

Josh SammanvsTamdan McCroryUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · Saturday, December 19, 2015Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Tamdan McCrory won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:10

Model Prediction: Josh Samman wins(67.0%)

Actual result: Tamdan McCrory wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Samman at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Samman is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Tamdan McCrory has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Tamdan McCrory threatens submissions; Josh Samman has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Tamdan McCrory has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Tamdan McCrory (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Josh Samman

Red Corner

Tamdan McCrory

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1357

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'3"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh Samman

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Casey · Apr 13

KOvs Eddie Gordon · Dec 14

SUBvs Caio Magalhaes · Jul 15

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jul 16

latest

Tamdan McCroryL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Krzysztof Jotko · Jun 16

KOvs Nate Marquardt · Oct 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh SammanMetricTamdan McCrory

2.08

Strikes / min

2.07

2.47

Strikes absorbed / min

1.60

34%

Strike defense

46%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

2.28

33%

Takedown defense

33%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

2.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39evenly matched on net striking+0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh SammanTamdan McCrory

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Samman(5 fights)Tamdan McCrory(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh SammanTargetTamdan McCrory

By target zone

40% acc · 60%

Head

73% acc · 92%

100% acc · 30%

Body

75% acc · 8%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

14% acc · 10%

Distance

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

75% acc · 8%

75% acc · 90%

Ground

74% acc · 87%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Samman rounds

even

Tamdan McCrory rounds

Round 1Josh Samman edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:13

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:33Control

Round 2Tamdan McCrory edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:40

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:14Control

Round 3Tamdan McCrory edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control1:28

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 19

Sig Strikes

39 / 53

41.7%

Sig Str %

70.3%

53 / 70

Total Strikes

80 / 97

2 / 4

TDs

2 / 4

66.7%

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

6:21

Ctrl Time

7:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tamdan McCrory	3 / 5	3 / 6	1 / 3	0
1	Josh Samman	6 / 8	26 / 35	1 / 1	0
2	Tamdan McCrory	17 / 26	35 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Josh Samman	4 / 8	22 / 27	1 / 1	0
3	Tamdan McCrory	19 / 22	42 / 46	1 / 1	1
3	Josh Samman	0 / 3	5 / 8	0 / 2	0

Josh Samman

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5

Tamdan McCrory

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3